BACKGROUND: Saakashvili hit the ground running after his election in January of 2004. His strong patriotic rhetoric, coupled with his pledges to fight corruption and bring Georgia closer to the West, galvanized the public and gave them hope. He certainly did not disappoint, sending a package of reform bills to parliament within the first month of his presidency, and quickly arresting a number of high profile businessmen and politicians on charges of corruption. His efforts did not go unnoticed. Just three months after his election, he boasted an approval rating of 86%, and the European Union graciously made Georgia part of the New Neighborhood Initiative and pledged over $1 billion to assist continuing reform. In recent months, however, things appear to be unraveling for Saakashvili. In January, he passed an education reform bill that established statewide college entrance exams, replacing the old corrupt entrance system that was largely based on bribery. The bill was met with stiff resistance as student protesters took to the streets. Many were arrested and several were injured as police tried to break up the demonstrations. In addition, almost 600 students at Tbilisi Medical College organized a hunger strike in protest of the law, an event that landed 63 students in the hospital. February brought the untimely death of Saakashvili’s Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania, the country’s most seasoned politician. The sudden loss of Zhvania‘s political acumen and administrative savvy left a gaping hole in the administration’s reform team. Saakashvili insisted the tragedy would not slow the reform process and quickly nominated what many considered the least controversial candidate, Finance Minister Zurab Noghaideli to provide stability and continuity. In March, Saakashvili was forced to fire 20 Shida Kartli police officials for alleged smuggling violations with the government of South Ossetia. Interior Minister Irakli Okruashvili has successfully distanced himself from the scandal, but Shida Kartli Governor Mikhail Kareli is on the hot seat. Opposition parties have accused Kareli, a Saakashvili appointee, of being involved in the controversy and have demanded his resignation. Finally, an April report from Human Rights Watch concluded that police abuse is widespread in Georgia, claiming that reform measures taken so far have done little to curb the use of torture by police. The report also criticized Saakashvili’s “plea-bargaining system”, an arrangement that allows suspects to buy their way out of embezzlement charges. This is not Saakashvili’s first encounter with human rights watchdogs. In February 2004, Human Rights Watch advised him to discontinue using harsh methods to implement reforms. Additionally, both the U.S. Department of State and the Georgia based Human Rights Information and Documentation Center cited serious violations by the Saakashvili administration in their 2004 reports, including police brutality, attacks on the media, invasions of privacy and disregard for the rule of law.

IMPLICATIONS: The recent events in Georgia pose serious danger to Saakashvili, because they create the perception that his reform plan is wavering – a perception that could prove particularly perilous for a president elected almost exclusively on an anti-corruption platform. Protests, scandals, human rights violations and the Zhvania tragedy have had serious effects on Saakashvili’s standing with the Georgian people. This was confirmed by a poll released in April by Georgian Opinion Research Business International (GORBI). According to the poll, Saakashvili has lost a quarter of the electorate in the last six months, now holding only 38% of the vote. Even worse, only 31% of Georgians feel the country is heading in the right direction, a sharp drop-off from the 79% GORBI reported just over a year ago. Also troubling for Saakashvili is the emergence of a new rival, a challenge he did not have to face during the first year of his presidency. Labor Party leader Shalva Natelashvili has been slowly gaining ground over the last few months, and is becoming increasingly more critical of Saakashvili’s policies. The recent GORBI poll has Natelashvili third with 5.4% of the vote. In GORBI’s “Magic Seven” ratings, a measure of the people’s confidence in a politician’s ability to run the government, Natelashvili is polling at 10%, nearly double his result of a year ago (5.6%). Natelashvili has put his newfound momentum to good use, actively criticizing Saakashvili at every opportunity. In April, his Labor Party began circulating a petition demanding the president’s resignation, and also announced plans to hold a massive anti-Saakashvili demonstration in Tbilisi to coincide with President Bush’s visit in May. Interior Minister Vano Merabishvili, subsequently banned all public demonstrations during President Bush’s stay. Additionally, Natelashvili has repeatedly challenged Saakashvili to televised debates in hopes of proving him incompetent. Natelashvili’s outbursts are nothing new, but the fact that he now is combining them with increased voter support is cause for concern for Saakashvili. And with over 40% of the electorate undecided on a party or a candidate, there is still a lot of support to be gained. If Saakashvili’s policies falter, Georgia could see a major swing in electoral support in the coming months.

CONCLUSIONS: Although the last few months have been discouraging for Saakashvili, there is no cause for panic. With over 38% of the electorate behind him, he is still in complete control, and as Noghaideli settles in as Prime Minister the numbers should get better. However, as Saakashvili deals with political opposition, it is important that he be mindful of civil rights. Tightening polls, emerging political rivalry and non-violent public protests are all signs of a democracy that is getting healthier. Saakashvili will undoubtedly not embrace these developments, but it is vitally important that he not suppress them. Saakashvili has made significant progress in rooting out corruption in Georgia, but it is a daunting task that will take time. Consequently, reports of scandals and resistance to reform measures are likely to continue throughout his tenure. In the past 16 months, reform success has been met with criticism by human rights watchdogs, and rightly so. As Saakashvili presses on with his reform plan, it is imperative that he become increasingly conscious of human rights. Saakashvili could further legitimize his anti-corruption campaign with a commitment to due process, fair treatment and the rule of law.

AUTHOR’S BIO: Joel Myers is a Ph.D. student at Old Dominion University, Graduate Program in International Studies. He holds an MS in international relations from Troy State University.