Wednesday, 23 February 2005

ADDRESSING CENTRAL ASIA’S WATER PROBLEM

Published in Analytical Articles

By Iskandar Abdullaev (2/23/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND: It is believed that by 2025, 70 percent of the world’s population will live in areas with physical or economic water scarcity. Nowhere is this more evident than in Central Asia, specifically in the Syr Darya River basin. The tremendous irrigation development of the 1960s and 1970s led to a decline of environmental flows.
BACKGROUND: It is believed that by 2025, 70 percent of the world’s population will live in areas with physical or economic water scarcity. Nowhere is this more evident than in Central Asia, specifically in the Syr Darya River basin. The tremendous irrigation development of the 1960s and 1970s led to a decline of environmental flows. The disappearance of the Aral Sea and the degradation of the surrounding natural ecosystems and irrigated lands can be listed as the direct results of unbalanced water resource management in the past. The Syr Darya basin is one of two major river systems in Central Asia. It covers an area of 444,000 km, and is inhabited by about 18 million people. The Syr-Darya rises in the Tien Shan Mountains, running through Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan and finally discharges into the Aral Sea. Four ex-Soviet states have their shares in the territory of the Syr Darya basin: Kyrgyz Republic (35%), Uzbekistan (19%), Tajikistan (3%) and Kazakhstan (43%). The dominant type of land use in the basin is pasture, with 55% of the land used for this purpose. Land cultivation is next to it in importance, 8% of the land in the basin is used for this purpose. Due to its arid climate, almost 90% of the cropland is irrigated. Agriculture, consuming approximately 90% of the water, is the principal water user in the basin, with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in the middle and low reaches of the basin, having the largest shares in irrigated land, 54% and 26% correspondingly. The water infrastructure of the Syr Darya basin is one the most impressive in the world. It consists of an immense network of irrigation and drainage canals, numerous barrages, pumping stations, and water reservoirs, several of which are equipped with hydropower generating plants.

IMPLICATIONS: The basin is already highly water stressed. Annual water resources amount to 51.1 km3 in the 5% flow probability and 23.6 km3 in the 95% flow probability. The water demand in the basin equals to 28.0-30 km3 annually, indicating alarmingly close gap between available water and demand for it. The increasing water requirements of the basin have resulted in declined flows to the Aral Sea, although this trend has been slowed down in the last 5-6 years. Increased salinity and water-logging in the irrigated areas are aggravating conditions in the irrigated agriculture of the basin. The area of medium to high salinization has increased from 342,000 ha in 1990 to 608,000 ha in 1999, i.e. from 10% to 18% of the cropland in the basin. The agricultural land affected by water-logging (groundwater level less than 2 m from the surface) has increased from 548,000 ha in 1990 to 905,000 ha in 1999, i.e. from 17% to 27% of the cropland. The most severely affected irrigated lands are located in Fergana valley as well as in Kazakhstan, in the tail reach of Syr Darya river basin. Losses of soil productivity lead to losses in crop yields and eventually force farmers to abandon the most severely affected fields. Better use of water in the irrigated agriculture and increasing its current productivity are major challenges of water resources management in the Syr Darya river basin. Despite national efforts and international support for reforms, water resource management in the Syr Darya basin remains complicated due to increasing scarcity and competition for water. During 1990-2000, inter-regional and inter-sectoral competition for water between power generation and irrigated agriculture increased dramatically due to differences in economic strategies among the newly established states located in the basin. As a result, conflicting water demand from the sectors and regions led to conflicts over seasonal allocation, causing deficits in the water available for irrigation in the downstream countries during summer. Although larger water storage capacities in downstream areas can balance the inter-sectoral and intra-seasonal water allocation, they are likely to reduce the flow into Aral sea, especially as all water is allocated to human and environmental uses. The Scientific Information Center of Interstate Coordination Water Commission (SIC ICWC) and the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) are studying “best” water conservation practices” for water users in an attempt to reverse the negative impacts of bad resource management and bring about a reform. The “Best Practices Project” identified and selected innovative land and water conservation methods practiced by individual farmers, agricultural enterprises (cooperatives, collective farms and private enterprises), as well as water management units. These cost-effective and simple techniques were local innovations, adapted by farmers and water managers for better agricultural performance. Research results clearly demonstrate that farmers have developed exemplary practices that could provide models for water use throughout the basin. There were a number of practices found and documented at the field, farm and irrigation system level that resulted in higher values of water productivity. These practices included alternate dry furrows, shorter furrows, re-use of drainage water, soil leveling, night irrigation, and partial rehabilitation of irrigation-drainage infrastructure. Water users at field and farm level and local water management organizations developed indigenous technologies and methods, which can help overcome water shortages, soil salinity and water pollution. This shows that communities in the region are capable of devising their own practical solutions to handle the water crisis. Such water conservation practices have several potential benefits at field, farm and system levels, including increasing yields and income, decreasing volumetric fees, increasing control over water, and reduction of water logging and salinity. In the project areas, water productivity increased by 10-20% from 2001 to 2003.

CONCLUSIONS: External factors shape and determine incentives for water conservation in the Syr Darya river basin. These factors are financial, moral and administrative. According to the survey the highest percentage of water users showed moral or religious incentives as the major reason for water conservation (30%). Financial incentives, such as the introduction of water delivery service fees were indicated as an incentive by 20% of water users. Administrative and technical incentives, such as discipline and strict control of water were also listed by 30% of the water users. While storage, inter-state cooperation, and other technical solutions are important, there is also a need for a long-term strategy for promoting efficient and productive uses of water at the field and farm level. Such strategies are important not only to proactively manage water scarcity but also to directly address the income and livelihood needs of the population. In this respect, the policy of promoting efficient and productive use of water, especially through user-driven and locally relevant water conservation practices assume particular importance. The improvement of water management and interstate cooperation are not only economic but also important political problems.

AUTHOR’S BIO: Dr. Iskandar Abdullaev is a Water Management Specialist with the International Water Management Institute.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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