BACKGROUND: On 6 January a District Election Commission in Bishkek officially registered Kyrgyz opposition figure Roza Otunbaeva as a candidate for parliamentary elections scheduled for 27 February. However, a few hours later members of the same District Election Commission were called for an extraordinary meeting where they overturned their previously accepted decision. The cancellation of opposition figure’s registration was explained by absence of a quorum at the initial meeting. As the Chairman of the Central Election Commission Sulaiman Imanbaev explained, the District Election Commission\'s decision lacked legal force as the approval of eight of the total fifteen members is required for registration of a candidate, whereas in the case of Otunbaeva only seven people out of eleven present voted in her favor. However, Roza Otunbaeva and other opposition figures condemned the Election Commission’s decision as illegal and politically motivated. According to the law on elections, only the Central Election Commission or a court has the right to reverse a decision of the District Election Commission. The registration of Roza Otunbaeva, formerly Minister of Foreign Affairs and ambassador, was a politically “dangerous” decision, as it would set a precedent among former ambassadors. In November, the CEC decided not to register former ambassadors, who had not lived in the country for a full five years before an election, as candidates for parliamentary elections. The decision has since been widely interpreted as a tool to sideline unwanted political figures critical of the current regime. The ruling has been fiercely criticized by opposition forces who believe that it is of a purely political nature and meant to disqualify politicians critical of government such as Medetkan Sherimkulov, Mambetjunus Abylov, Usen Sydykov, who in the past served as ambassadors in various countries and who might sympathize with the opposition if elected to Parliament. The three have since appealed relevant courts to overturn the Central Election Commission’s decision including the Constitutional Court. However, no positive ruling has been made and the latter court refused to consider the cases due to the absence of the fact of violation of law. The registration of Otunbaeva, a former diplomat with prolonged residence outside the country would have opened the way for the potential registration of other diplomats critical of government. Besides, if registered, Otunbaeva would pose a challenge to Bermet Akaeva, President Askar Akaev’s daughter, reportedly also planning to run for Parliament in the same district. The Election Commission’s decision denying the opposition candidate’s registration sparked immediate demonstrations in Bishkek. Demonstrators made up of representatives of Kyrgyz opposition parties and movements as well as some deputies demanded the reversal of the Election Commission’s decision and the permission to register former ambassadors as candidates for parliamentary elections. Demonstrators wearing a trademark yellow scarf to symbolize change also demanded the resignation of President Akaev and Central Election Chairman Sulaiman Imanbaev.

IMPLICATIONS: The opposition protest actions have sent alarming signals to the Kyrgyz leadership, which lately has been repeatedly rejecting the possibility of any kind of revolution in the country. In the light of recent political developments and ahead of to two national elections this year, Kyrgyzstan has been named as the next potential spot for a revolution similar to the Georgian “Rose revolution” and the Ukrainian “Orange revolution”. Hence the Kyrgyz leadership is facing the serious challenge of preventing the political situation from acquiring a Ukrainian or Georgian style. Although Kyrgyzstan shares some similarities with the two revolutionary post-Soviet states, it has different political preconditions and lacks certain prerequisites to become the third one. Kyrgyzstan, with a population of around five million, has more than forty political parties and the Kyrgyz opposition is fragmented and rather weak. On the threshold of the upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections, the Kyrgyz opposition as expected became more active and some developments have taken place within the opposition bloc. A number of political forces and coalitions emerged such as the People’s Movement of Kyrgyzstan, Civic Union For Fair Elections and Jany Bagyt (New Direction), which united several opposition political parties and consist of quite popular figures. On 29 December five opposition coalitions – the People’s Movement of Kyrgyzstan represented by former Prime-Minister Kurmanbek Bakiev, Jany Bagyt represented by Muratbek Imanaliev, the Social-Democratic party represented by Almaz Atambaev and Atazhurt (Fatherland) represented by Roza Otunbaeva signed a memorandum of understanding pledging to work together to ensure that the parliamentary elections are held strictly in accordance with the constitution and international standards. The same day 300 civic and public organizations united into a civic solidarity For Free and Fair Elections. The initiative, which was signed by the Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society, also aims at preventing any fraud during the parliamentary elections. Hence, the opposition forces are seen as more or less united, but the major problem about Kyrgyz opposition is the absence of a “Yuschenko” type of opposition leader, capable of enjoying the support of the majority of population. Many of the opposition figures are former high-ranking government officials from the President’s circle, who now appear to some to take the opposition\'s side only because of personal ambitions. Even theformation of a strong opposition is unlikely to lead to revolution. The Kyrgyz authorities will certainly act more harshly than Eduard Shevarnadze in Georgia or Leonid Kuchma with Victor Yanukovich in Ukraine. It has already taken measures against mass demonstrations. President Akaev has been harshly condemning the revolution scenarios in Ukraine and Georgia, and repeatedly urged the government as well the general public to prevent any provocations relating to the upcoming elections and called upon them to learn a lesson from Ukraine and Georgia, which as a result of confrontations were about on the edge of a civil war. \"I want to call on the entire nation to counter the exporters of revolution and the provocateurs,\" the President said in his appeal to the people and government on 11 January. The President argues that the opposition receives funds from foreign sources and use “dirty political techniques” to get into power. Meanwhile, the government has already created a tool to rebuff any revolutionary-like movements: Prime-Minister Nikolai Tanaev the same day said that the government is concerned about possible public disorder during parliamentary elections, and an anti-terrorist commission and a special group which is tasked to protect political stability and prevent mass unrest were formed under the government. These new formations could severely limit citizens’ rights.

CONCLUSIONS: President Akaev has been in power for fourteen years and has repeatedly declared that he will not go against the Constitution and run for president this year. As Akaev is set to step down, the current regime tries to sustain the status quo and keep power in the hands of loyalists. The new Parliament is key in this strategy, and it is in the interest of the current regime to have as few opposition-minded deputies there as possible. The Election Commission’s recent decisions meet the regime’s general strategic goals, even if they provoke opposition protests. Although the current political situation has thrown a challenge to the government, it is unlikely to sow the seeds of a colorful revolution. Yellow might not necessarily become a symbol of change for Kyrgyzstan just yet, and the country could witness numerous similar events in the course of the coming election season. AUTHOR’S BIO: Nazgul Baktybekova is an independent political analyst based on Bishkek.