BACKGROUND: Uzbekistan’s December 26 elections aim to institutionalize a major political development in the national democratic evolution. For the first time, the people of Uzbekistan will exercise their right to elect a bicameral House of Representatives with upper and lower houses of the Oliy Majlis (Parliament). Constitutional changes regarding the distribution of political power between the executive and legislative bodies and between the offices of President and Prime Minister are coupled with a nationwide public awareness campaign to educate the nation about the newly introduced structural reforms, the rights and duties of citizens as well as the role mass media plays in modernizing societies. The government of Uzbekistan appears earnest responding to international apprehensions about political transition by striving for broad-based public participation and improvements toward fair elections. Constant fears about activist extremisms spreading throughout the region and relevant security concerns however, make some international apprehensions appear somewhat contradictory. Citizens aged 18 and over, with 5 years inland residency are constitutionally eligible to vote through secret ballots (Parliamentary contest age is 25 years minimum) for both Oliy Majlis and Kengashes (Councils) of people’s deputies at regional, district and city levels. Political parties and/or independent contestants without criminal record with substantial support by the voter initiating groups including party membership at the district level (8% of voters) are eligible to contest and register with the offices of the Ministry of Justice in the districts. Military and security apparatus personnel are ineligible. Political parties and independents are encouraged to reapply, if their applications did not meet the constitutionally defined registration standards in the first application. Registered political parties include (in alphabetical order) Adolat, Fidokorlar, Mily Tiklanish, Liberal-Democratic Party and the People’s Democratic Party. The application by the Birlik Party was rejected. Reportedly Birlik was given three additional chances to reapply, albeit without success due to the minimally required number of party membership and the party’s advocacy of dual citizenship, a subject that contradicts with clauses in the Constitution. A Birlik-associated politician based overseas privately confirmed the relatively small number of membership in Birlik and Erk, assuming that some party members may be able to contest elections as independents. The Uzbek government is encouraging international observation groups to monitor the electoral processes.

IMPLICATITONS: The Central Election Commission (CEC), established as an independent apolitical body under the Constitution and supported by autonomous institutions and regions, will supervise the election process in accordance with the existing legislation of July 22, 2002, already in place. Total membership of the lower house is 120, while the upper consists of a total of 100 seats with 6 senators from each region. The President will appoint 16 members among artisans, professionals and other less represented individuals/groups for societal balance. Candidates must win at least 33% of vote to be declared successful, barring which another election is held. Senate elections would be held within 3 months after those to the lower house. Parties and individuals are prohibited from receiving donations. The CEC receives funds for electoral expenses allocated by the national government to distribute among contestants, both parties and independents to organize campaigns. The CEC is responsible for ensuring that all contestants receive television campaigning time appropriately. The most important aspect is the three months long (September-November) nationwide political education campaign to inform the public about the nature of the new bicameral House of Representatives and its role in the prospects, problems and processes of democratic transformation. Many national and international scholars specializing in political reform have been invited to address the planned political education seminars. The idea of educational campaign is to dispel the previously held international concern about the lack of public information on political reform. The government of Uzbekistan appears enthusiastic about the planning and execution of Parliamentary elections and anticipates rewarding satisfaction. CONCLUSIONS: The bicameral House of Representatives was envisaged by the Oliy Majlis, which amended the Constitution on July 22, 2002 to enshrine this new institutional development by year 2005. The forthcoming elections thus are a great opportunity for a substantial step forward in the democratic transition to help legitimize Uzbekistan’s strategy of gradual political development. Most importantly, it will provide the largest eligible voter population in Central Asia, approximately 14 million of Uzbekistan\'s nearly 25 million total population, the opportunity to cast vote (Approx. 11 million are under age 18). Leaders of nearly 95 percent literate Central Asia, irrespective of their Soviet past, are the founding fathers of their new nation-states. They seem to visualize formidable plans for the economic and political development, wit great care taken to consider the unique realities of their own socio-political cultures. The majority of the regional states have so far effectively avoided the eruption of societal conflicts, which otherwise have marred much of the former USSR. A well-planned strategy of gradual political development could prove to be the answer to modernization in regions experiencing serious geopolitical stress. Meanwhile, faster strategies of political transformation have experienced serious backlash, not least in the nearby Caucasus. There is good reason to argue that the pace of broad-based political reform in Central Asia could be increased, if the region was assisted to cope with the problem if its landlocked position, for example through alternate routes of economic and political communication. Amid pressures of a slowly stabilizing economy and waves of region-wide militant extremism, the processes of political reform in Uzbekistan appear genuine. If Uzbekistan is able to carry this process out as planned in spite of the geopolitical obstacles in its path, the successful accomplishment of national elections in Uzbekistan could prove to be a success case in the annals of comparative modern political transitions.

AUTHOR’S BIO: Prof. Aftab Kazi is a Senior Fellow of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute since 1998. He is writing a book on “The United States and Central Asia: Competition between Heartlands and Rimlands.”