IMPLICATIONS: The Russian policy of assassination began in 1996 when the President of the Chechen Republic and leader of the nationalist movement Jokhar Dudayev was killed. But the assassination backfired and instead of ending the Chechen resistance, as the Russians expected, it fueled an upsurge in the resistance, forcing the Russian Government to negotiations. The Chechens succeeded in achieving de facto independence and sign a Russian-Chechen treaty in 1997 between President Yeltsin and the Chechen President Aslan Maskhadov who came to power upon this de facto independence. With second Chechen war in its second year, the assassination policy became official Russian policy, and was launched as a means to counter the leadership of the independence movement in Chechnya or those who came from Arab countries to support the movement bringing with them their religious ideologies. Upon assigning the operations in Chechnya to the Federal Security Service on behalf of the Russian Government in early 2001, then Kremlin spokesperson on Chechen affairs Sergei Yasterzhembsky declared that \"reestablishing security in the Caucasus Republic will only take place after eliminating the leaders of the Chechen fighters\", and that \"special security forces and the forces of the Ministry of Interior and the Russian Army must strive to eliminate the Chechen leaders\". The elimination saga started with the killing of Arbi Barayev, Salman Raduyev (who died in captivity in mysterious circumstances, Khattab (with a poisoned letter), and more recently the assassination of former Chechen interim President Zelimkhan Yandarbiyev in the Qatari capital, Doha, and of guerrilla leader Ruslan Gelayev. The assassination of Yandarbiyev, for which Russian Intelligence agents were accused, was brought to Qatari courts. Still, these assassinations failed to end the resistance in Chechnya, which is continuing in different places and at different times. In this context, the killing of Abu Al-Walid might be a blow to the Salafi-Jihadist way and the Arab fighters. Although it has been rumored that a known salafist fighter named Abu Hafss al-Ordni has taken over leadership after al-Walid, it is expected that Abu Omar Al-Saif, the ideologue of Arab fighters in Chechnya and the head of the Shari\'a courts established in Chechnya in 1997, will assume leadership. The problem is that Abu-Omar\'s role has always been ideological, and his expertise in the field is not as strong as that of Khattab or Abu Al-Walid. This dilemma will only add to the problems the Salafi-Jihadists are already facing in Chechnya, with funds to the group cut as part of the international campaign to block funds for \"terrorism\". External funding was one of the most important mainstays that the Salafi-Jihadists used to recruit fighters. Yet the killing of Abu Al-Walid and the policy of assassinations are not expected to have any great implications on the Chechen resistance as a whole, especially the nationalist movement fighting the Russian troops in separation from the Salafi-Jihadists.
CONCLUSIONS: Be it that the killing of the Arab leader Abu Al-Walid might affect the Salafi-Jihadist way in Chechnya, the Russian policy of assassinations will not make a difference on the fundamentalist movement in Chechnya because the latter is being fed by violence against civilians, the Zachistka (“mopping-up operations”), refusing to deal with the legal Chechen leadership and trying to strengthen the rule of the brutal Russian proxy Ahmad Kadyrov. This continues to make radicalism and resistance, in any form, the alternative for many young Chechens who have lived in war and destruction from 1994. It is also noteworthy that the policy of assassinations has failed to put an end to the Chechen resistance in general, because even if the Salafi-Jihadist strain of resistance would be killed along with its leader, the Chechen resistance will persist since it is not part of the Salafi-Jihadist way. If anything, the resistance is likely to become more localized and uncontrollable following the assassination campaign of its leaders.
AUTHOR’S BIO: Murad Batal Al-Shishani is a Jordanian-Chechen writer who holds an M.A degree in Political Science, specializing in Islamic Movements in Chechnya. He is author of the book \"Islamic Movement in Chechnya and the Chechen-Russian Conflict 1990-2000, Amman 2001 (in Arabic).