BACKGROUND: Relations between Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have at times been far from friendly and tension-free since their independence in 1991. Various factors have contributed to this situation, including border disputes, a major source of tension in the bilateral relations of all the Central Asian countries. Thanks to the Soviet division of Central Asia into five ethnically-based republics without regard to the historical and ethnic realities, the two neighboring countries have disputes over certain regions. The resulting existence of large ethnic minorities in the two countries (e.g., 800,000 Turkmens in Uzbekistan) has created grounds for ethnic problems, another contributing factor to tension in their bilateral relations. In this regard, their nationalist policies towards their respective ethnic minorities have been mainly responsible. In the post-Soviet era, both countries have sought to promote their own respective languages and to elevate the status of their own ethnic kin. As a result, the Turkmen minority of Uzbekistan and the Uzbek minority of Turkmenistan have been subjected to intentional and unintentional discriminations. This situation has created grounds for conflict between the two countries, which seek to end the mistreatment of their ethnic kin. A major-shared problem in both countries has been education of the minorities in their mother tongues. Owing to various obstacles to good quality educational opportunity for the minorities in both countries, their ethnic minorities face difficulties in learning their own ethnic languages and Russian. Moreover, they have limited knowledge of the dominant language of their country thanks to a poor funding of the schools used by such minorities. Poor education and a lack of fluency in the dominant language and Russian, which are the languages of higher education, sharply decrease their chance of entering post-secondary institutions. Consequently, they have found themselves in a gradual process of exclusion from the job market for well-paid and promising positions. Thus, the Uzbek minority in Turkmenistan and the Turkmen minority in Uzbekistan have experienced a steady social and economic decline.

IMPLICATIONS: Within this context, certain factors have worsened Turkmenistan\'s ties with Uzbekistan. Like just about all other Central Asians, the Turkmens have been concerned about Uzbekistan\'s efforts to establish itself as the dominant power in Central Asia. However, this broad concern turned into a concrete fear in November 2002 as a result of an unsuccessful assassination attempt on President Niyazov, which the Turkmen government interpreted as part of a coup attempt. In its aftermath, the president accused Uzbekistan\'s ambassador in Ashgabat, Abdurashid Kadyrov, of assisting a leader of the alleged coup, Boris Shikhmuradov. This accusation severely damaged Turkmen-Uzbek relations and forced the Uzbek ambassador to leave for Uzbekistan. In the following days, the Turkmen authorities forcibly relocated ethnic Uzbeks living near Turkmenistan\'s border with Uzbekistan. Turkmenistan has become an isolated country by choice. The ruling elite has reestablished a Soviet style political system, which has sought to minimize the contact of Turkmens with foreigners. The Turkmen government has limited its foreign relations with a small number of countries necessary for its survival. As a country without a direct access to international trade routes, Turkmenistan has to rely on its neighbors or certain countries in its proximity through which it conducts its international trade. For that reason, the Turkmens have maintained good relations with Iran and Russia, while having troubled relations with other regional countries such as Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan. Turkmenistan has been a target of a growing international criticism for abuses of human rights, a problem endemic in all the Central Asian countries to a varying extent. Being isolated internationally, the Turkmen regime is now facing dissidents at home. Moreover, the purging of the civil servants and military personnel, which has been a feature of the Turkmen political system since independence, has become more extensive in the post-assassination era. This phenomenon has weakened the ruling elite and made it more vulnerable and sensitive to internal and external threats. In such a situation, stable and reliable ties with neighboring Iran, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan have become especially important for the Turkmen government. Added to the mentioned reasons, this is a result of self-inflicted damage on its relations with Russia as it decided in May to withdraw from the dual-citizenship agreement with Russia. That agreement helped address concerns among the ethnic Russian minority of Turkmenistan who maintained their Russian citizenship while having Turkmen nationality. The agreement therefore created an incentive for many of them to stay in Turkmenistan in the aftermath of the Soviet collapse, when most ethnic Russians of Central Asia left for Russia. The May decision created a panic among the dual citizens who tried to leave the country for Russia while they could. Against this background, it is no wonder that President Niyazov sought to end hostility towards Uzbekistan. Attending an opening ceremony for a gas-production facility on May 13, the president stated\" We have good relations with our neighbors: Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Iran\". Putting Uzbekistan in the category of friends despite a history of conflict indicated that Turkmenistan could not afford hostile neighbors such as Uzbekistan, which has the largest and strongest regional army.

CONCLUSIONS: President Niyazov\'s hint at a desire to improve ties with Uzbekistan could potentially help the two neighbors begin a new era in their bilateral relations. However, to be effective, that should go beyond friendly remarks to become a policy of the Turkmen government. Even with that condition in place, the success of such policy requires its continuity on the Turkmen side and a cooperative mood in Uzbekistan. There is not yet any strong indication to suggest that both countries are genuinely prepared to deal with their major sources of disputes as a prerequisite for durable peaceful relations. However, perhaps, the growing concern of the Turkmen and Uzbek governments about internal threats could create a strong incentive for them to seek to address their conflicts. After all, they cannot fight on two fronts.

AUTHOR BIO: Dr. Hooman Peimani works as an independent consultant with international organizations in Geneva and does research in International Relations.