BACKGROUND: On April 17, Afghan and Pakistani militia clashed briefly near the border town of Ghulam Khan, south of Khost, where the demarcation of border remains contested. According to Afghan reports, Pakistani militia crossed nearly three miles into Afghanistan and were driven back by Afghan forces, while according to Pakistani reports, U.S. and Afghan forces crossed just under one mile into Pakistan to meet with local tribal leaders too seek their support in return for humanitarian and development aid. Four days later, Afghanistan’s president Hamid Karzai arrived in Islamabad for a two-day official visit to Pakistan. He held talks with President Pervez Musharraf. Later, it was claimed that he handed over a list of Taliban leaders, whom he wanted to be arrested. When asked by a journalist, the Afghan President said that there was talk “of some people in general terms”, adding that “we are going to come up with a more specific list of names”. President Karzai also denied that there is any dispute between Afghanistan and Pakistan. He played down the recent border clash and said that things like that are bound to occur between people at all times. He claimed not even to have raised the issue with Pakistani Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali. Both sides also discussed extending cooperation in the fight against terrorism. He also admitted that his country was not yet settled after the U.S.-led war against the Taliban regime, and requires Pakistani cooperation for reconstruction and pacification efforts. Pakistan and Afghanistan only have a bright future in front of them, Karzai added. He assured the government of Pakistan that the rapidly increasing Indo-Afghan relations will have no negative bearing whatsoever on Pakistan. He also told Pakistani reporters that a defense ministry level Pakistan-Afghan dialogue has been established.

IMPLICATIONS: This visit will most likely have significant implications on Pakistani-Afghan relations in the days ahead. It seemed that President Karzai wanted to portray a better picture of Kabul-Islamabad relations throughout the trip though his alleged demand to arrest specific individuals left a sour taste. Many independent sources have on a number of occasions reported that these figures are active in Afghanistan. Accordingly, Mullah Biradar is heading a Taliban guerrilla outfit in Afghanistan, while Akhtar Mohammad Usmani, Mullah Dadullah and Mullah Abdul Razzaq are active in Southern Kandahar, Zobal, Bidmand and Nimroz. This in fact is not the first time that the Afghan authorities claimed that remnants of Taliban leadership is hiding in Pakistan. Afghan Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah has frequently blamed Pakistan of harboring wanted Taliban elements. Both countries agreed for a mechanism for regular consultations in Islamabad and Kabul alternatively, which will provide a forum for both countries to exchange views on bilateral and regional issues. Pakistan, for its part, has expressed concerns over Indian consulates in cities along the Pakistan border, and of Indian military assistance to the Afghan authorities for establishing its national army. Pakistani authorities’ concern over “Indian activism” along the “terrain close to Pakistan’s backyard”, prompted Karzai to declare that “Afghanistan will not allow its territory to be used by one friend of ours against a brother of ours, that has to be understood very, very clearly.” Karzai also announced that Afghan Defense Minister General Mohammad Qasim Fahim would be coming to Pakistan at a future date as part of an emerging security dialogue between the two countries. Fahim is known for his pro-Indian and anti-Pakistani views. This announcement amounts to a clear indication of a growing realization in Afghan power circles of the need to have close ties with Pakistan. On the trade and commerce front, a number of issues were discussed: Pakistan offered Afghanistan the establishment of free industrial zones near the Torkham and Chaman border areas. Pakistani Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz also identified many other areas of cooperation such as food, construction, pharmaceutical industry, communication and social infrastructure. Aziz also outlined the potential role of the Gwadar Sea port currently under construction, through a network of roads from Gwadar to Chaman, to serve as main transit port for Afghanistan. Recently a delegation of the National Bank of Pakistan visited Kabul for setting up of financial services. Islamabad also offered participation in establishing sugar, cement and fertilizer plants in Afghanistan. The visiting Afghan delegation was also told that timely construction of the Spin Boldak-Qandahar and Torkham-Jalalabad roads would further increase economic cooperation between the two countries and enhance trade relations. The current transit has increased from Rs 5.5 billion ($96 million) during last eight months to Rs 8.8 billion ($154 million). Exports between the two countries have increased substantially to $270 million. Yet there are issues that remain. As several analysts have noted, Afghanistan has bought into the Indian-Iranian-Russian plans to construct trade routes to bypass Pakistan and especially its eastern port of Karachi. Iran and India are planning to construct new rail and road links that will link Western Afghanistan with Iranian ports on the Arabian Sea. Pakistan, on the other hand, has placed restrictions on Afghan transit trade and raised rather than lowered transportation costs for Afghan exports through Pakistan. This issue is currently a major obstacle to better trade ties. As the Lahore-based Daily Times recently noted, Pakistan is potentially set to benefit more than any other country from the reconstruction of Afghanistan. This is especially true in the Southern areas where other countries are unlikely to be able or willing to make inroads for some time. Pakistani companies have already achieved lucrative contracts in Afghanistan. This in turn gives Pakistan a stake to prevent Taliban elements from going into Afghanistan to disrupt the Karzai government. Another outstanding issue is the nearly 1,000 Pakistani prisoners remaining in Afghan jails. President Karzai has promised that they would be released soon.

CONCLUSION: Although the Afghan President insists that Pakistan and Afghanistan have a good future ahead, a lot remains to be done. The foremost thing is the establishment of trust and confidence between the two countries, because despite the encouraging tone of the Afghan President, elements in the Afghan government may be reading a different script; this may be true in parts of Pakistani society as well. This trip should be seen as a good start towards better relations between the two but what lies ahead is yet to seen.

AUTHOR’S BIO: Rizwan Zeb is a Islamabad based security Analyst. He is currently working on a book on Pakistan-Central Asia Relations.