On May 28-29, 2007, Turkmenistan’s President Kurbangeldy Berdimukhammedov paid a two-day official visit to Astana, Kazakhstan. Having met with his counterpart Nursultan Nazarbayev and the head of the Kazakh Senate, he signed a number of long-term agreements in the sphere of trade, economics, military, culture and education. Within this context, Berdimukhammedov’s visit to Kazakhstan is his fourth official visit as head of state in six weeks. Taking his full entourage on all state visits having started with Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kazakhstan, CIS summit at St Petersburg with forthcoming visits to Iran, Brussels and Turkey, Berdimukhammedov appears to steer clear of Niyazov’s isolationism to more pragmatic relations based on constructive engagement.

BACKGROUND: President Berdimukhammedov’s visit to Kazakhstan is partly a continuation of the trilateral summit held among the presidents of Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan in the port city of Turkmenbashi (formerly Krasnovodsk) on May 12, 2007. This summit at the shore of the Caspian Sea had focused mainly on expanding cooperation in the energy sector, particularly opening up a new gas pipeline to Russia through Kazakhstan and developing humanitarian issues such as cultural and educational exchange. Accordingly, intergovernmental commissions were set up to work out the details of the implementation of this new trans-Caspian gas pipeline project and construction of a new railway expected to connect Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan with possible routes to Persian Gulf states.

On May 26, one day prior to the president’s visit to Kazakhstan, the Ashgabat-Almaty flight by the national Turkmen Airline was re-opened, and will carry out two flights per week from now on. It is noteworthy that this air route was halted under former President Saparmurad Niyazov’s rule for unclear reasons, and re-opening it anew adds up a symbolic meaning to this visit. At the bilateral meeting in the capital city of Astana, Berdimukhammedov and Nazarbayev first of all signed a long-term agreement on developing cooperation in trade, economics, science and culture until 2020 – a first of a kind in terms of intergovernmental contracts for Turkmenistan. Second, a joint declaration was issued as to the direct implementation of all previously signed bilateral agreements, including the agreements of May 1993 and February 1997 on developing friendship and cooperation between the two countries. Third, the delegations – particularly the National Security Committee of Kazakhstan and the respective Turkmen agency – agreed on cooperating in the work of border commissariats and operative search services, meteorology, media exchange as well as government standardization.

Meanwhile, Berdimukhammedov’s visit to Kazakhstan promises to be crucial for Kazakh minorities residing in Turkmenistan. Within the framework of an agreement on cooperation in the humanitarian sector, a deal was reached to open up a new Kazakh school in the port city of Turkmenbashi, where the main language of instruction will be Kazakh. Although learning three languages had been state policy under Niyazov’s rule, bilingual lessons had been largely scaled down at secondary and higher educational establishments. The only exception was the Turkmen-Turkish high schools nationwide, where instruction is mainly in Turkish and English. According to a report by the Institute for War and Peace Reporting, the number of Kazakhs remaining in Turkmenistan in 2005 was 30,000, down from 90,000 only several years earlier. According to official statistics, a mix of Uzbeks, Kazakhs, Tajiks and other minorities today constitutes roughly seven percent of Turkmenistan’s total population. A couple of years ago. with Niyazov still in office, Kazakh schools were reportedly closed down in the city of Turkmenbashi. Speaking on the motives for establishing close ties, both presidents claimed at a press conference that ‘pragmatism’ drives them to closer cooperation in all spheres of interest.

IMPLICATIONS: Berdimukhammedov’s latest initiatives vis-à-vis expanding cooperation on a wider scale with Russia and Kazakhstan seem to have entailed a number of positive ramifications for Turkmenistan. If what the sides called a ‘pragmatist’ approach based solely on national interests works out in the end, then it is going to be the first and foremost tangible step toward liberalizing the Turkmen economy. At a plenary Cabinet session after the trilateral summit in Turkmenbashi, Berdimukhammedov gave strong directives to the head of the state Committee on Sports and Tourism to develop tourism at the seashore of the Caspian Sea, particularly in Turkmenbashi city. Since Turkmenbashi is envisioned to be a Free Economic Zone, Berdimukhammedov ordered to arrange more simplified visa and customs regulations, preferential customs tariffs, and long-term land leasing for foreign investors and tourists coming to this free trade area. Additionally, other socio-economic conditions such as proper communications systems and transportation connections will also be arranged to attract foreign investors. Currently, investors from Saudi Arabia and Kazakhstan have already showed an interest particularly in extracting hydrocarbon resources in the Caspian Sea areas of Turkmenistan.

If these recent steps to attract foreign investors get implemented on the ground, and if the legal basis for foreign firms is truly guaranteed, it will immensely contribute to the development of trade and tourism in Turkmenistan, sectors that remained less fortunate prior to Berdimukhammedov’s administration. This is particularly noteworthy amidst the opening of new commercial ties with neighboring countries. A ferry service connection that aims to connect the city of Turkmenbashi with the Russian city of Astrakhan through Aqtau in Kazakhstan will open up new trade routes for fledgling businesses in Turkmenistan. Yet the construction of the planned new railroad connecting Russia, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan promises to expand trade routes not only to Europe via Russia, but to the Persian Gulf through Iran as well. The specific details of this grand project are to be discussed during Berdimukhammedov’s upcoming visit to Iran around 16th of June.

Increasing Turkmenistan’s cooperation with the international community as well as with regional blocs constitute another aspect of Berdimukhammedov’s ‘pragmatist’ approach in the country’s foreign relations. As the president stated at a press conference in Astana, Turkmenistan is going to restore its relations with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). He said that Turkmenistan would remain an Associated member of the CIS but “actively participate in all of its summits from now on.” But holding a status of permanent neutrality, it is unclear whether Turkmenistan will become a full member of the Commonwealth and participate in fields such as military defense. This time, at the unofficial meeting of CIS countries in St Petersburg on June 10, Berdimukhammedov personally met with the presidents of Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Georgia to discuss bilateral issues. As was reported on state TV, Turkmenistan is going to open air flights to Georgia, resume the work of the once closed down Turkmen embassy in Azerbaijan, and resume cooperation with neighboring Uzbekistan. In the meantime, during a meeting with the European Union’s special representative for Central Asia, Pierre Morel, Berdimukhammedov spoke on expanding EU-Turkmenistan cooperation by increasing its current 1.5 billion dollar trade turnover to a greater level. A “European House - News Center” will soon be opened in Ashgabat as well.

CONCLUSIONS: All in all, the tangible results of Berdimukhammedov’s visit to Kazakhstan remain to be seen, since the mega-projects designed trilaterally at the May 12 summit are just getting raised at the governmental level. However, Berdimukhammedov’s fourth meeting with Nazarbayev within a relatively short time and Putin’s hasty support for the implementation of these projects create optimistic prospects.

New steps, such as the construction of new railroad, transport, and communications connections and arrangements in support of foreign investment and tourism in the oil-rich areas of the Caspian Sea may in fact serve as a good start for the liberalization of the Turkmen economy. Yet what Berdimukhammedov called a ‘pragmatist’ approach in the country’s foreign relations and close cooperation with the international community appears to lift Turkmenistan’s status as an isolated country in landlocked Central Asia.