Results of the parliamentary elections in Armenia strengthened the position of the Republican Party of Armenia, in all likelihood providing for Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian replacing Robert Kocharyan as President in the 2008 presidential elections. The elections also introduced the newly formed Prosperous Armenia Party in parliament, a party widely seen as supported by President Kocharyan. Raffi Hovannisian’s Heritage Party represents a new opposition force and will, along with Artur Baghdasarian’s Country of Law Party, constitute the only opposition in parliament. With this new distribution of parliamentary seats, the elections provided changes in the Armenian political landscape, and a starting point for the run-up to the presidential elections next year. 

BACKGROUND: With the parliamentary elections held in Armenia on May 12, political players positioned themselves for the upcoming presidential elections in 2008. The elections were termed by international observers as an improvement from previous ones, while short of being free and fair. However, local sources reported organized vote-buying and voter intimidation.

According to the results presented by the Central Election Commission, the Republican Party of Armenia (HHK), headed by Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian won a landslide victory, winning ca. a third of the votes and strengthening its position in the National Assembly to an absolute majority. Although this victory was widely expected, the election results did hold some surprises.

The Prosperous Armenia Party (BH), formed in 2004 and headed by oligarch Gagik Tsarukian, performed much lower than expected. After a campaign in large part based on distributing “charity”, pre-election polls forecasted the BH to be the HHK’s main competitor and a close race between the two. With only 14,7% of the votes, the BH did end up second, however far behind the HHK. Tsarukian has stated that he does not seek a political post for himself, and the BH is widely seen as created on President Robert Kocharyan’s initiative. In this view, the party is intended to serve as a balance against the HHK, and grant Kocharyan a power base of his own, something he has previously lacked. However, other than this function, the BH is for all practical purposes likely to support the HHK, along with the Armenian Revolutionary Federation Dashnaksutiun (ARF). The HHK and its support parties have thus significantly strengthened their grip over parliament.

The elections also marked important changes in the opposition. The People’s Party of Armenia, headed by Kocharyan’s main rival in the 2003 presidential elections, Stepan Demirchian, failed to enter parliament. Furthermore, neither Artashes Geghamian’s National Unity Party, nor the more radical opposition consisting of the Republic Party, the Impeachment Bloc, or the New Times Party reached the 5% threshold. The marginalization on the political scene of the opposition formed after the 1999 assassinations of the prime minister and speaker of parliament is described as an effect of its failure to present both a united front, an approach proven successful in the 2003 parliamentary elections, and coherent political platforms during the run-up.

Consequently, only two opposition parties now take up seats in the parliament. These include the Orinats Yerkir (Rule of Law Party), headed by former speaker of parliament Artur Baghdasarian, and U.S.-born former foreign minister Raffi Hovannisian’s Heritage Party. Orinats Yerkir, which left the pro-government coalition in May 2006, found itself weakened at only 6,8% of the votes. This may in part be an effect of the publication in a pro-government newspaper in April of a secretly taped conversation between Baghdasarian and a British diplomat in which Baghdasarian requested EU criticism of the government for election fraud. Kocharyan publicly condemned this as an act of treason. Somewhat more surprising was the relatively strong result for Heritage Party, at 5,8 %. The success can be accredited to Hovannisian’s personal popularity, as well as the promotion of what is widely seen as a mature and developed political agenda.

IMPLICATIONS: While it is unlikely that the elections will hold any significant changes in Armenian domestic and foreign policy, they do hold several implications for the political landscape in Armenia, and for the upcoming presidential elections.

Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian has now secured his position as the HHK’s presidential candidate in the 2008 elections, and in all likelihood his victory in these. The death of his predecessor, Adranik Margaryan, in March removed the last obstacle to Sarkisian’s complete takeover of the HHK, which will now serve to grant him the presidential post. While the HHK’s majority in Parliament would allow it to form a government on its own, Sarkisian has stated a desire to form a coalition with BH and ARF. According to a local analyst, this may serve to prevent possibilities for a rival coalition including BH and ARF, which, while manageable, would be inconvenient with presidential elections approaching. A coalition also potentially grants the ARF a higher influence than its modest share of seats would imply, as the party may come to serve as a broker between HHK and BH.

Kocharyan has stated that he does not intend to be the youngest pensioner in Armenia, and is expected to seek to retain a powerful position in Armenian politics after his last term in office. The weak results of BH provide President Kocharyan with less of a powerbase than expected. However, since the party does take parliamentary seats, one of its primary goals has still been fulfilled. The BH’s position in parliament may serve as insurance for Kocharyan’s security and property as he steps down, and perhaps as a platform for a potential political comeback at a later stage. It remains to be seen what options BH’s position in parliament will offer Kocharyan, and how it will affect the relationship between Kocharyan and Sarkisian and the alleged rivalry between the two.

The elections may also mark the rise of more credible options in Armenian politics, in the form of a more politically mature opposition. The main players in the former opposition based their strategies on boycotting parliamentary processes and on vast criticism of the government, without presenting discernable alternatives to the ruling party in terms of developed political platforms. Both Baghdasarian’s Orinats Yerkir and Hovannisian’s Heritage Party have claimed to enjoy much larger support than presented by the Central Election Commission, and have condemned the official results as reflecting large-scale election fraud. However, neither has expressed a willingness to resume previous opposition strategies of boycotts, and seem more focused on promoting their agendas within the parliamentary process. The new opposition also supports a clearly Western-oriented foreign policy, and if their claims to public support prove remotely realistic, may present some competition to Sarkisian in the upcoming presidential elections.  

CONCLUSIONS: With this new division of seats in parliament, the scene is now set for the Armenian presidential elections of 2008. Through the success of HHK and his control over the party, Serzh Sarkisian is now in a most advantageous position for succeeding Robert Kocharyan as president. The introduction of BH in parliament does indeed grant Kocharyan a powerbase, though perhaps a weaker one than anticipated, with possible implications for Kocharyan’s options after stepping down and his future political role. Finally, the elections also provided for a revitalization of the opposition, especially through the emergence of the Heritage Party, which may result in the introduction of clearer alternatives in Armenian politics.

AUTHOR’S BIO: Niklas Nilsson is Project Coordinator for the Project on Ethnic Relations in the South Caucasus at the Uppsala office of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program Joint Center.