IMPLICATIONS: Despite the predictability of the upcoming elections, the IRP is determined to actively participate in the vote. Such political dynamics reflect Rakhmonov’s attempts to create at least an image of political pluralism for international consumption. The Islamic party, unlike other political formations in Tajikistan or other Central Asian states, has quite an advanced internal structure. The mechanisms of its internal functioning suggest that it has a well-defined hierarchy fixed by the party’s legal base. This year the party will likely carry primary elections before announcing a presidential candidate. The Islamic party has conservative and liberal wings. On the one end of the spectrum, there are members who promote the establishment of a religious state. The party’s conservatives are strongly against Rakhmonov’s cooperation with the west. Yet, on the other hand, there are leaders who think that religion should not influence the state, but that religious literacy among the population will build a shield against radical views and contribute to social cohesion. However, in order to preserve internal unity, the party’s liberals refrain from contesting their conservative colleagues. Rakhmonov’s attempts to build at least a democratic veneer are driven by Tajikistan’s strong dependence on international donors. However, the efforts to reinforce limited political pluralism have minimal impact on fostering civic engagement on a grassroots level. In fact, the Tajik government is disinterested in making the society politically active and economically independent. Governmental control over cotton production is one of the examples where the Tajik state hinders the evolution of entrepreneurial skills among the population. The dependence of Tajik agrarians on state directives allows the government to extract maximum benefits from cotton production and pursue its own political agenda among an impoverished population. Though the Tajik opposition has a voice in the parliament, it has little leverage over the legislative process. In fact, representatives of the Tajik religious opposition in the parliament help the government to create a visibility of a political regime with features of a democratic governance. The opposition serves the role of “shirma” (cover) of the government’s functioning, as one IRP member observes. The functioning of the president’s party against the background of some political pluralism contributes to the international recognition of the Tajik government. As is widely noted by local expers, “the government has an outer shell, but internally functions according to informal relations”. Although the Islamic party will likely announce a candidate for the upcoming elections, the party fully realizes that Rakhmonov will win with an absolute majority. As IRP representatives argue, it is in the regime’s interests that the Islamic fraction acts as a counter-weight to the secular politics promulgated by Rakhmonov. It will help the president to illustrate that the only alternative to his secular regime is a religious party. Some IRP members hence suggest boycotting the elections, thus making Rakhmonov the only candidate in the elections.
CONCLUSIONS: There is almost unanimous agreement among Tajikistan’s population and political leaders that the Kyrgyz scenario of power transformation will not be replicated in Tajikistan. Rakhmonov’s government is widely supported by the Tajik population because it was able to maintain stability after civil war ended. However, the upcoming presidential elections indicate that Rakhmonov is not so much concerned with remaining in power, as with increasing his political dominance. His construct of the PDP and maneuverings with the IRP help to build the image of a façade democracy for international donors. Yet, this stability might well be just a short-term effect. High unemployment and impoverishment is not being tackled by Rakhmonov’s government. Likewise, systemic corruption across all public institutions averts most efforts by international donors.
AUTHOR’S BIO: Dr. Erica Marat is a Research Fellow with the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program.