By S. Frederick Starr (11/7/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BAKGROUND: Like all its neighbors, including Iran and Pakistan, Afghanistan is a multi-ethnic land.  Pashtuns are the largest group and Tajiks a distant second, followed by Hazaras, Uzbeks, and Turkmens.  Obviously, any government that is to be legitimate must be organized in such a way as to assure fair representation for all.

By Stephen Blank (7/3/2002 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND: Since independence in 1991, Niyazov has ruled Turkmenistan with an iron hand and through a suffocating and omnipresent cult of personality. This dictatorship, evidently far worse than the preceding generation of Soviet rule, has brought Turkmenistan to the brink of disaster and also apparently triggered substantial, if not yet overt, mass and elite disaffection. There is a virtual absence of civil society, and if reports by dissidents are true, there also is a high degree of likelihood of a failing state in the event of a transfer of power.

By Regine A. Spector (7/3/2002 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND: Existing organizations that promote regional infrastructure and transit routes in Central Asia such as the EU’s TRACECA project and the GUUAM organization have excluded Iran or Russia. In response, these two countries have since the late 1990s sought to create alternative transport routes by restoring Soviet era ties and developing port and rail infrastructure. Two years ago, Russia, Iran and India signed an agreement in St.