By Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr
December 22, 2020, the CACI Analyst
In recent years, the security situation on the Eurasian continent has grown increasingly unstable. Great powers are less constrained by international norms and institutions, undermining peace and security from Crimea in the West to Xinjiang in the East. This poses a serious challenge to the states of Central Asia, caught in the center of the continent. Some, and particularly Kazakhstan, have responded by growing international activism – not least by contributing to the management and resolution of the conflicts and controversies that could affect their security. That makes these states natural partners for the United States and Europe.
By Emil Avdaliani
November 24, 2020, the CACI Analyst
In recent years, China has made significant economic inroads into Central Asia. A recently opened new transportation route linking Xinjiang to Uzbekistan could have large geopolitical repercussions. Although many questions remain as to how effective the corridor will be, particularly as the Kyrgyz section of the railway is still not completed, its likely continuation is via the Caspian towards the Black Sea ports. The route, a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), indicates the project’s success in Central Asia, which will be stoking apprehensions in Moscow.
By Dmitry Shlapentokh
November 3, 2020, the CACI Analyst
After the death of President Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan’s new leadership has engaged in a transformation process structurally similar to those in the post-Stalinist USSR and post-Maoist China. Manifestations of this new reality are manifold. Some are quite visible to the public, such as the recent harsh jail term for Karimov’s daughter, accused of corruption, embezzlement, money laundering and other crimes. Other manifestations are more subtle, yet important in order to understand the new trends. In particular, a shift is underway from the emphasis of Tamerlane (Timur) as the founder of Uzbekistan to the role of Alexander the Great in the country’s antecedents.
By Farkhod Tolipov
July 16, 2020, the CACI Analyst
In May-June 2020, Central Asia experienced several border incidents between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan; Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan; Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. These incidents revealed once again, on the one hand, the local population’s transboundary lifestyle and on the other, the artificial character of the borders that separate independent states from each other. Similar incidents have recurred in the region with a certain frequency since gaining independence; however, none of them escalated into larger and dangerous conflicts since resolutions came quickly and were based on unique integrative arrangements.
By Farkhod Tolipov
June 8, 2020, the CACI Analyst
In May 2020, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Maria Zakharova commented on a draft law initiated by Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Justice, stipulating the use of Uzbek language for the entire workflow in governmental bodies. According to the draft law, officials will be fined for failure to comply. Moscow reacted strongly to this political motion in Uzbekistan. Whereas support for national language and culture abroad is a normal feature of foreign policy and commonly regarded as a “soft power” tool; the statement of Russia’s MFA Spokesperson was received as another form of “hard power” in Uzbekistan.
The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.