Improving the security situation in the country before the parliamentary elections in April is important but made more difficult now that international forces are being reduced after Afghanistan\'s successful presidential election. However, reducing the international presence in the country might come to soon. United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan said in a report to the General Assembly and the Security Council on the eve of the inauguration that extremists and terrorists, militia forces and criminals engaged in the drug trade continue to pose threats to Afghanistan. ‘Without substantial progress in addressing the sources of insecurity, reconstruction efforts and the establishment of viable State institutions will continue to falter, and the economy may well be subsumed by the illicit-drugs industry’, Annan said in the report.

Karzai has, at least, acknowledged one of these threats: the drugs industry, declaring a ‘holy war’ on it shortly after his inauguration on December 9. Afghanistan is the world\'s largest opium producers and Karzai suggested insurgents are financing their campaigns by the drug trade. ‘Opium cultivation, heroin production is more dangerous than the invasion and the attack of the Soviets on our country, it is more dangerous than the factional fighting in Afghanistan, it is more dangerous than terrorism,’ said Karzai, adding that ‘Whether or not the international community supports us by offering alternative livelihood, we should stop poppy cultivation and restore our honor.’

Drugs are indeed a huge problem for the country. But warlords, factional fighting and the Taliban insurgency also remain a danger - other than Karzai seemed to suggest. That the Taliban is still taken seriously by the international forces, however, could be gathered from the impressive security measures taken by them to ensure safety during the inauguration, when they were patrolling all over Kabul.

For some time now it has been suggested that at least a large part of the Taliban would shift sides and start supporting Karzai, in this way ending the insurgency. But some doubt whether this will happen. According to Pakistani journalist and Afghanistan expert Rahimullah Yousafzai, accommodation with the Taliban is only possible if a deal is struck with Omar himself, who would still be firmly in control of the movement. And this is an unlikely prospect – not only because Omar is one of the Taliban with whom Karzai has ruled out any agreement. The Taliban leadership do not seem interested in power-sharing with Karzai (or anybody else, for that matter) either.

According to Abdur Rashid Ghazi, a Pakistani cleric considered close to the Taliban, no member of the movement would ever consider cooperating with a regime that has been put in place by the Americans. The Taliban are, therefore, likely to remain a problem.

But the warlords, who wield huge powers in the provinces, have their own militias and are also believed to have an interest in opium cultivation and smuggling, can be expected to oppose a central government bent on breaking their power. Rumors have it that not only Yunus Qanuni, the Tajik leader who came second in the presidential election, but also Ismail Khan, former Governor of Herat, are considered for posts in the new cabinet.

In September, Khan was relieved as governor of the western province of Herat that he had been ruling as a personal fiefdom for years. This was seen at the time as a serious blow against the warlords. His entry into Karzai\'s new cabinet, on the other hand, would signal a weakness of the central government.

With Taliban and warlords still going strong, it is important therefore that the international forces keep up their presence and, because the central authorities remain weak, help pacify the country to ensure safe parliamentary elections in the spring.