The prosecutor’s office of Almaty therefore brought a lawsuit against the Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan party demanding its closure. Appearing on national television, the prosecutor’s spokesman said in a few confused words that DCK was instigating interethnic strife and urging people to civil disobedience and calling the existing regime illegitimate. On January 5 the specialized district economic court of Almaty held its first preliminary hearing of the case, but the court session was not attended by the main incriminated figure, the chairman of the DCK Asylbek Kozhakhmetov, who was reportedly ill. Nevertheless a large crowd of DCK members, who carried orange bands pinned on their coats and distributed leaflets of the same color, gathered outside the courthouse. The leaflets, among other things, mentioned the long-standing story of “Kazakhgate”, the top-level corruption scandal involving improper contracts with foreign oil companies.

Civil rights activist Yevgeniy Zhovtis told journalists that the very fact that the economic court decided to consider the case, which should have been considered by an administrative court, was a violation of the law. He added that any court ruling passed in absentia behind the backs of the chairman of the party Asylbek Kozhakhmetov would be illegitimate. The coordinating committee of opposition forces of Kazakhstan, of which DCK is part, released a statement condemning the “persecution’ of public and political organizations. The Ak Zhol party came up with a similar statement noting that the lawsuit against the DCK ran counter to Article 5 of the Constitution of Kazakhstan which allows ideological and political pluralism in the country.

The Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan is not alone in its distress. A month ago the financial police of Almaty filed a criminal case against the internationally prominent charity fund Soros Kazakhstan charging the organization with tax evasion. The charge was rejected by Soros Kazakhstan as totally unsubstantiated. Opposition observers regarded the lawsuit against Soros Kazakhstan as an attempt of the authorities to squeeze this organization, known for its active support of independent press, out of the country.

These events support the opposition’s argument that the authorities fear the Ukrainian scenario in the upcoming presidential elections. Maksat Muratov, Columnist of the Soz newspaper, writes that Russia will do everything to shape presidential elections in Kazakhstan as it desires and to get a man loyal to the Kremlin elected. Some, including Muratov, believe Moscow will stop at nothing to achieve this. “Ukraine was saved from such a fate by the European Union and the .U.S., but nobody knows who will save us”, concludes Muratov.

According to Bigeldy Gabdullin, formerly a prominent opposition figure who spent many years in the U.S. and is now an ardent supporter of the current political and economic policy of the state, the Ukrainian scenario is ruled out in Kazakhstan for a number of reasons. First, the opposition in Kazakhstan does not enjoy wide international support and financial aid. Second, opposition forces have no clearly defined political objectives. Third, the opposition has only limited access to media.

Perhaps the most saddening point is that opposition forces are drifting away from down-to earth social problems which would appeal to the wider public. DCK has been seriously weakened by internal strife within its ranks. In recent months many popular figures like Gulzhan Yergalieva, Petr Svoik, Karlygash Zhakiyanova (wife of the imprisoned DCK leader Galymzhan Zhakiyanov) and others left the party. In this circumstance the DCK is nothing more than a paper tiger to the authorities – and increasingly a shapeless group of power-hunger political adventurers.