Wednesday, 19 May 2004

PERCEPTIONS OF NATO’S FUTURE IN AZERBAIJAN

Published in Field Reports

By Gulnara Ismailova (5/19/2004 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Already in May 1994, Azerbaijan joined NATO’s Partnership for Peace program, PfP. Since 1996, official Baku has been increasingly active in the framework of PfP. Since 1996, Azerbaijani military representatives take part in exercises, workshops and trainings in skills development.
Already in May 1994, Azerbaijan joined NATO’s Partnership for Peace program, PfP. Since 1996, official Baku has been increasingly active in the framework of PfP. Since 1996, Azerbaijani military representatives take part in exercises, workshops and trainings in skills development.

The recent visits of top U.S. officials to Baku take place in the context of the anti-terrorist campaign in Afghanistan, the war in Iraq, and speculations in the region of a possible U.S. military intervention in Iran. This testifies to the interest of official Washington in strengthening its position in the strategically important South Caucasus region. One most important visit was that of the U.S. European Command, led by General Charles World. Other visitors included the Commander of the U.S. navy in Europe and U.S. Supreme Commander of NATO forces in Northern Europe, as well as several ambassadors.

During the final press conference, General World declared that the U.S. plans to hold joint maneuvers on the struggle against extremism and the trafficking in weapons of mass destruction in Azerbaijan. He categorically denied rumors that the U.S. is going to create military bases on the territory of Azerbaijan. One top military official qualified the planned presence of mobile forces in Azerbaijan not as military bases, but, more likely, as temporary means for coordination of efforts in the struggle with transnational terrorism.

According to local analysts, one result of military-to-military contacts between Azerbaijan and the U.S. was an agreement to base mobile divisions of the U.S. armed forces on Azerbaijan’s territory.

Meanwhile, particular attention was attached to military issues during Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage’s visit at the end of March. He highly assessed the cooperation between the two countries in the struggle against terrorism. Armitage furthermore denied plans of basing mobile U.S. military bases in Azerbaijan. \"This question was not discussed, since the U.S. does not intend to place its bases in Azerbaijan\".

According to Azerbaijan state news agency AzerTaj, president Ilham Aliyev during his meeting with Mr. Armitage emphasized that the two countries’ military cooperation is at a very high level. \"We are certain that this cooperation will be more effective. Azerbaijan supports the U.S. in carrying out antiterrorist operations. We are allies, and this policy will be continued\".

Former U.S. ambassador to NATO Robert Hunter’s statement attracted public attention in Azerbaijan. \"Ukraine, Georgia and Azerbaijan show a great interest to join the alliance. The Caucasus is far from NATO and Europe - strategically and politically. The majority of the Alliance’s present members would not commit to ensure Georgia’s security. The same is true for Azerbaijan which is still at war with Armenia.

The possible basing of U.S. forces in Azerbaijan has upset Islamist forces in the country, who see it as a step in the complete blockade of Iran and as a preparation for a strike against Iran. Predictably, Russian State Duma members have also been alarmed. MP Nikolay Pavlov asked for a plenary session to discuss the decision of Ukrainian authorities to admit NATO forces, and the basing of NATO divisions in Azerbaijan.

Former Presidential advisor Vafa Guluzade noted that the concept of \"military bases\" has already changed. \"Military bases of the last century were military stations where soldiers lived with families etc. Americans have introduced new ideology to the theory of military bases. Actually they need a friendly country which will be ready to accept U.S. military forces when it will be necessary. They also need particular infrastructure to be deployed in case of need and accept particular number of US forces.

In spite of the unclear status of a possible U.S. military presence in Azerbaijan, a process of establishing a real bridgehead aimed to expand U.S. military presence in the region is beginning to emerge.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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