Although this idea has been on the table for many years, the opposition parties failed in the past to unite under a common umbrella both during the Presidential elections in 1998 and the Parliamentary elections in 2000. Only since August 2002, when the national referendum on Constitutional amendments took place, these parties have come closer to each other, staging numerous unified demonstrations and preparing common recommendations to the Unified Election Code.

The four parties share similar platforms and advocate for market economy and democratization in the country. They also urge further integration of Azerbaijan with the Euro-Atlantic community and hold a more nationalistic stance on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue. The common platforms make the idea of the unified candidate even more necessary. Several months ago, the director of Baku-based NGO “Institute for Peace and Democracy” Leyla Yunus suggested that the four leaders stay outside of the race and back the candidacy of another person. The head of another NGO “For the Sake of Azerbaijan” Eldar Namazov believes that “the four leaders have a psychological obstacle and that is the unwillingness to make concessions to each other. With a fifth person, this psychological barrier will be taken away.”

The issue of the unified candidate remains important not only within the country, but also beyond its borders. In the beginning of June, the U.S. National Democratic Institute invited the leaders of ANIP, APFP and Musavat to pay a visit to Washington, a step that is viewed by many local analysts as an attempt to foster the dialogue between the parties and to elaborate a mechanism for selecting a unified candidate. Opposition leaders have accepted the invitation and are expected to pay a visit in the first half of July.

Opposition parties, in their turn, seem to show a considerable interest to this issue. Although most of them have been nominated by their party congresses to run for the presidency, they keep this topic open for discussions. On June 14 the leaders of the four parties met in the office of the Popular Front Party and have agreed to freeze the discussions of a unified candidate until the candidates’ registration and reveal their plans related to mechanism of selecting the unified candidate after that. The head of the Political Council of ADP Nuraddin Mamedli told the independent daily Echo that he hoped the parties would keep their promises. He also called for a public control of this agreement.

As one of the ways to select the candidate, the leader of Musavat party Isa Gambar has suggested to hold primary elections among the opposition candidates. This method was used by his party prior to the Parliamentary elections in 2000, and was viewed by many analysts as a successful way to prevent the break-up of the party. Gambar did not further elaborate on the details of this mechanism.

The majority of local political analysts believe that unification of the opposition will be a major step toward their victory. Independent daily Zerkalo reported that Ali Kerimli of Popular Front has even suggested a formula for such a coalition. “The party of the unified candidate will have less seats in the new Cabinet and the parties of other candidates will have more seats in the executive bodies”. Should this formula be accepted as a basis for further talks, the four opposition parties will come very close to a compromise. This, in turn, will win the sympathy of the West for the opposition parties and enable the opposition parties to better defend their votes should the elections be fraudulent.