Wednesday, 18 June 2003

CABINET RESHUFFLE IN KAZAKHSTAN DEFUSES POLITICAL CRISIS

Published in Field Reports

By Marat Yermukanov (6/18/2003 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Substantiating his decision to leave his post as prime minister, Imangali Tasmagambetov accused the parliament of violating voting procedures over the draft Land Code which provoked a long series of heated debates. The controversial draft had been approved by parliament at the first reading in mid-March, but some factions of deputies, swayed by the opposition “Ak zhol” and “Azat” parties, rejected the land privatization scheme submitted by the government.

Arguing that it was premature to privatize lands taken by rural households on lease in initial stages of land reform, the lower chamber of parliament, majilis, demanded that farmers must be granted their shares of agricultural land for free use.

Substantiating his decision to leave his post as prime minister, Imangali Tasmagambetov accused the parliament of violating voting procedures over the draft Land Code which provoked a long series of heated debates. The controversial draft had been approved by parliament at the first reading in mid-March, but some factions of deputies, swayed by the opposition “Ak zhol” and “Azat” parties, rejected the land privatization scheme submitted by the government.

Arguing that it was premature to privatize lands taken by rural households on lease in initial stages of land reform, the lower chamber of parliament, majilis, demanded that farmers must be granted their shares of agricultural land for free use. Major demands also included the introduction of a moratorium on privatization of these lands by non-state companies and a 5 per cent limit on privatization of lands in every rural district.

In pursuit of popularity on the eve of parliamentary elections to be held next year, some political parties insisted on conducting a nationwide referendum on this important issue. Their representatives traveled to remote regions and rallied discontented crowds under the banner of social justice. The standoff between government and parliament reached its highest point when on May 19 the Prime Minister demanded that parliament must decide whether or not to show confidence to the government. Surprisingly, in defiance of popular feeling, the majority of both chambers gave a confidence vote. But it did not help to overcome the crisis, and eventually the prime minister left his post.

Apparently, the nerve-racking land reform was only one of the headaches of the former prime minister. Despite officially trumpeted successes in key sectors of economy, there has been no remarkable progress in combating poverty in rural areas. The government program adopted this year to rescue impoverished and ruined countryside came too late. Import substitution scheme, which is still on every official’s lips, is judged by sober economists to be a misfire.

There is too little that could be chalked up as a doubtless achievement during the 17 months-long tenure of Imangaly Tasmagambetov. A former Komsomol leader and a good public speaker, he made an enviable political career, climbing up ladders with ease. Although he always touched the right chord by using impeccable Kazakh in his public appearances and expressing support for Kazakh-language media, his competence in economic matters was often questioned. His resignation, analysts say, is not a great loss for the country.

On this background, the appointment of Danial Akhmetov, the former governor of the North Kazakhstan and Pavlodar regions, seems to be a happy choice. During his governorship in these regions predominantly dominated by hard-to-please Russians, he enjoyed great popularity, achieved by creating an image of a hard-working, easily approachable man of integrity with a vast knowledge of every branch of industry. He came to replace the sacked rebellious governor of Pavlodar region, (who was later sent to jail), earlier last year. Before that appointment, he had held the post of deputy prime minister. One of the advantages of the new prime minister is that his name has never been linked to any of the numerous corruption scandals in government ranks.

It may be expected that Danial Akhmetov will set new guidelines for economic reform in Kazakhstan and will avoid any confrontation with parliament. “I hope we will work together, and I can count on your backing of reforms” he said briefly addressing parliament members on June 12, after parliament voted unanimously for his nomination as prime minister. The new government faces a formidable challenge of gearing the economy of raw material- exporting Kazakhstan to the manufacture of its own industrial goods. On the agenda is the introduction of innovation technology, which would make it possible to upgrade the industry. As a part of this effort, a whole network of the so-called technological parks is being set up in industrial cities.

There are also other problems to be tackled in coming months. Late in May, South Kazakhstan was shaken by a powerful earthquake which left thousands of residents of the Zhambyl region without shelter. To complicate things, torrential rains and mudslide affected that area and the Kostanay region in the south. Millions of dollars must be spent before life in disaster zones can return back to normal. Can the new government shoulder the burden? That is only one of many questions that remain that remain unanswered.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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