A few days ago, the leader of the “Musavat” opposition party Isa Gambar called all opposition powers to cooperate and put forward a common candidate for the next presidential elections that should take place in 2003.

Isa Gambar’s proposal consist of four points. First, it is necessary to hold a summit of party leaders in the near future, to discuss the existing public and political situation in the country, and the duties of the opposition. The second item is to prepare an opposition-wide agreement on cooperation and mutual obligations. Then it is necessary to create an operational  structure consisting of the political parties’ leaders. And finally, most importantly, the Musavat chairman offers to put forward a common candidate from the opposition at the next presidential elections. In order to identify this candidate, Isa Gambar offered to hold preliminary elections. 

Proposals to unite the opposition have been voiced in the past. The individual ambitions of some leaders have been the main problem for the consolidation of the opposition, some leaders think. Disputes on a common opposition candidate at earlier occasions became the main apple of discord between Musavat and the Popular Front Party.

Gambar’s statement found a s sudden resonance, and the comparatively faded political situation in the country became more animated. Other opposition parties’ reactions on these proposals were soon to come.

“I support the idea to put forward a common candidate, but I don’t agree that we should identify the candidate via preliminary interparty elections”, said Ilyas Ismailov, chairman of the small “Adalat” party. According to Sardar Jalaloglu, secretary general of the Democratic Party, the idea to put forward a common candidate at presidential elections is unrealistic. Jalaloglu noted that the opposition should first and foremost stand for providing democratic elections, and hence several candidates should participate. Representatives of the Union of Azerbaijani Forces, consisting of “Vahdat”, “Namus” and SDPA (Social-Democratic Party of Azerbaijan) also declared Gambar’s ideas unacceptable. Ali Kerimli, leader of reformed branch of the Popular Front Party, also assessed Gambar’s proposals negatively. 

On November 2, the Assembly of national democratic forces, consisting of 5 political and 9 public unions of Azerbaijan, conducted a special roundtable to discuss the proposals on opposition consolidation put forward by the Musavat leader. Participants in the discussions argued that the proposals were timely. Most speakers noted the difficulty of separate political parties or leaders successfully contesting elections. In this regard, they argued that the unification of the opposition and the achievement of an  agreement among presidential contenders is inevitable. Assembly members shared the opinion on the necessity to put forward a common presidential candidate.

Isa Gambar seems to keep his optimism in hoping that his ideas will gain acceptance by the heads of other parties. Such a consolidation is necessary to counteract thje possibility of a ‘neo-monarchic’ scenario of transfer of power in Azerbaijan. One form of further discussions could be private meetings among opposition leaders. Only after these meetings will it be possible to assess the viability of the proposals, according to Gambar:

‘I don’t think that it is necessary to accept all the four principles I proposed. I envisage amendments or changes to my proposals by other leaders. I regard as the acceptance of one or two of them a success. The first three, the holding of an opposition summit, signing an agreement of cooperation and establishing an instantly operating structure, should not cause disputes, since they should be acceptable to all opposition forces’.   

According to independent political scientists, Gambar’s proposals are another propaganda step. Had Musavat desired to turn these ideas into a reality, the delicate character of these issues required a certain level of preparations and consultations with the main recipients, i.e. opposition colleagues. The negative reaction of most other opposition leaders shows the fact that Musavat did not prepare the ground for its public proposals.   

The initiative of the Musavat leader could paradoxically lead to new splits in the opposition camp. This would be confirmed by the preliminary agreement of an alliance between the reformed wing of the Popular Front Party and the National Independence Party (AMIP), which is to be signed in the nearest future and will be open to other parties’ accession. 

Also it became known that after long discussions, these parties have agreed on a compromise decision to put forward a common candidate at presidential elections and to come out with common list of candidates at parliamentary elections. In sum, the pre-election race in Azerbaijan has begun. Isa Gambar is scheduled to begin his consultations with party leaders soon. It will be interesting to see if Gambar is ready to accept another candidate than himself as the joint opposition candidate.

Gulnara Ismailova is a freelance journalist based in Baku, Azerbaijan