A coordinating meeting was held on 11 October in Bishkek. Kyrgyz government officials, representatives of UN agencies and of several donor organizations gathered in this meeting to discuss the current situation in Kyrgyzstan, as well as the international situation that has taken a dramatic shift after the terrorist attacks on September 11. Participants focused on a potential increase in the flow of Afghan refugees into Kyrgyzstan, and the measures to be taken to prepare for this possibility.

At the meeting, Deputy Foreign Minister Sultan Zakirov said that the terrorist attacks that took place in the United States last month and the current anti-terrorist actions in Afghanistan are having a great impact on the international situation, and that they are raising concerns regarding the future stability and security in Central Asia. One of the major issues that raise concern to Central Asian countries is the potential flow of Afghan refugees into the region.  Since Kyrgyzstan in 1996 ratified the International Convention on the Status of Refugees and the UN Convention on Refugees,  it is obliged to accept the Afghan refugees. Thus the country is legally bound to provide asylum to refugees and to fulfill its international obligations. From 1999 to September 2001 Kyrgyzstan accepted 600 refugees, 416 of which were from Afghanistan. According to official data, a total of 831 Afghans are registered as refugees in Kyrgyzstan and 150 more are to receive refugee status.  

At the meeting, Deputy Minister of Extreme Situations and Ecology Avazbek Kaliev informed that it is expected that about 10,000 refugees may flow into the country through Chong-Alay, and 2,500 more through Murghab. According to Kaliev, although Kyrgyzstan will probably witness a considerable flow of Afghan refugees beginning only next spring, some measures have already been taken by the Ministry and by competent government bodies to deal with the situation. A chief coordinating committee was established, which will be responsible for placing and assisting the refugees.  

At the meeting, first deputy Prime Minister Nikolay Tanayev said that a country like Kyrgyzstan cannot handle these refugee problems by itself. He added that international donor organizations should give grants to Kyrgyzstan. According to the information provided by the Ministry of Extreme Situations and Ecology, 20 million Soms will be needed for the placement of refugees and to provide for their basic needs. As was informed at a press conference on September 26, the UNDP and UNHCR are to provide humanitarian aid in case of a refugee flow into Kyrgyzstan. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has already asked other international organizations for assistance.

The Kyrgyz government intends to place the probable Afghan refugees in the southern regions of the country. These are the Jalalabad and Osh regions. In an interview, the Head of the Civic Defense and Ecology Headquarters Jyrgalbek Mukashev said that about 500 refugees would be placed in every city of Jalalabad, about 1000 in every rayon, and about 10000 refugees would be placed in the entire region.  The refugees will live in some schools, technical lyceums and dormitories.  

Although some experts do not see any danger of large influx of refugees into Kyrgyzstan, there are still grounds for concern.  As a consequence of refugee influx, Kyrgyzstan can be economically overwhelmed.  In addition, the social tensions in the country may heighten and the fragile balance in the south may break down. Some critics argue that the placement of Afghan refugees in the south might pose a threat not only to the situation of these regions but also of Kyrgyzstan in general. This is because of the density of the population of the southern regions.  Because the portion of land that southern residents receive is very small, this has often resulted in a south-north migration.  If Afghan refugees will populate the southern regions, this situation could be further exacerbated and create social instability. A second reason is related to the situation with religious extremism. During the last three years the south, specifically the Batken region, has been subject of Islamic incursions; moreover, the religious extremist organization Hizb-ut-Tahrir is particularly active in the south of the country. If members of the Taliban movement or some other terrorist organizations will pose as Afghan refugees and manage to come to Kyrgyzstan it is quite possible that the extremist movement in the south will be further activated.

This criticism may be legitimate, and more criticism regarding the flow of Afghan refugees into Kyrgyzstan is likely to be voiced. However, it is too late for Kyrgyzstan to back away from the international obligations that it has taken upon itself, and no matter how the situation with refugees will turn out, the country has to face it. If some foreign aid will be provided, and most importantly, if the resources will be spent rationally and in the right direction, there is still hope that the Afghan refugees will not become an impossible burden for Kyrgyzstan to bear. 

Gulzina Karim kyzy