On November 12, a prominent public figure, Zamanbek Nurkadilov was found dead in his room by his wife, popular singer Makpal Zhunusova, with bullet wounds to his head and heart. President Nursultan Nazarbayev sent his condolences to family members of the deceased and ordered a thorough investigation of the case. Until now, police investigations headed by the deputy interior minister did not produce any clue to Nurkadilov’s death which triggered a flurry of speculations. Was it a politically motivated murder, a killing committed by criminal gangs or a suicide? The most embarrassing point for authorities is that the death of Nurkadilov, former governor of Almaty city and Almaty region and chairman of the State Emergency Agency, who later joined the opposition camp comes in the middle of the election campaign promised to be held free and fair. With an overwhelming sway of popular support on his side and confident of success in the elections, Nursultan Nazarbayev is doing his utmost to observe the set rules of the game and avoid any collision with his opponents. It is hard to believe, for this reason, that the regime had a hand in Nurkadilov’s death.

The deceased former official fell afoul of the existing regime in March last year, when, still in office as chairman of the Emergency Agency, he lashed out with harsh criticism leveled against Nursultan Nazarbayev. Nurkadilov, in an unprecedented bold statement published in opposition papers, accused the state leader of embezzlement of funds accrued from oil revenues, nepotism and family and clan corruption. Soon after the bombshell criticism, Nurkadilov was relieved of his duties and joined the For Fair Kazakhstan opposition bloc. However, over the past six months he did not make public appearances and seemed to leave a reclusive life distancing himself from political activities. Kairat Nurkadilov, the son of the deceased, in an interview to national television channel Khabar appreciated the investigation efforts undertaken by a team of qualified forensic experts and said his father’s death was not connected to political purposes. Meanwhile, Nurkadilov’s case triggered all sorts of conjectures and rumors. Zhumash Kenebai, the editor of the opposition paper Zhuma Taims, alleged that a few days before his death Zamanbek Nurkadilov revealed to him over the telephone that he possessed ‘sensational information’ which would seriously affect the outcome of the upcoming presidential elections.

Nurkadilov’s death threatens to disturb the temporary lull before the elections. The chairman of the Central Election Committee, Onalsyn Zhumabekov, expressed his apprehensions that on December 4 some political forces may provoke public disorder using as a pretext the inevitable absence of some voters from voters’ lists. Law enforcement bodies are braced up to an unexpected turn of events. The chief of the National Security Committee Nartay Dutbayev believes that some “troublemakers” may try to “destabilize the situation in the state”. He said any attempt to cause public disorder will be suppressed with all severity of the law.

Authorities and opposition have long been trading accusations suspecting each other in an attempt to “rock the boat”. The President’s daughter Dariga Nazarbayeva, who is actively campaigning for her father on tours to the regions, said Nurkadilov’s death plays into the hands of the radical opposition, but in no way suits the authorities. Her words seem to carry conviction. Opinion polls show high political ratings for the incumbent president. The director of the independent Risk Assessment Group, Dosym Satpayev, thinks that the death of Zamanbek Nurkadilov will not influence the mood of the electorate.

Supporters of Nazarbayev obviously fear the negative resonance that Nurkadilov’s death may provoke outside Kazakhstan. Dariga Nazarbayeva said that Nurkadilov’s death is the internal affair of Kazakhstan to be sorted out within the country. At the same time, she asserted that unnamed “outside factors” were trying to influence the outcome of presidential election. Did she mean Russia or the West? Dariga Nazarbayeva’s words echo with the announcement by CEC Chairman Zhumabekov that the CEC did not see any reason to register CIS observers from the CIS Election Monitoring Organization (CIS-EMO) as this organization has neither NGO nor international status.

Kazakh election authorities’ dislike for the CIS-EMO is apparently rooted in the fact that this organization is reputed to have pulled strings in ‘color revolutions’ in Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan and Georgia. The head of the CIS-EMO, Marina Bogdanovich appealed to the President of Kazakhstan to get her organization registered, but to no avail. The refusal to register CIS-EMO signals that Astana is growing impatient with foreign observers. The Central Election Commission of Kazakhstan flatly rejected the proposal of the OSCE to integrate members of political parties into local election commissions in equal proportion. Authorities do not doubt that Nazarbayev will win the elections, and the winner is always right.