Wednesday, 30 November 2005

LOOKING BACK: PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN TAJIKISTAN

Published in Field Reports

By Bakhtiyor Naimov (11/30/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Six registered parties participated in the elections: the National Democratic Party of Tajikistan (NDPT), which is the party of the President and consequently the most popular and strongest; the Islamic Revival Party (IRP) with its biggest support in the rural areas especially in the central valleys; the Communist Party (CP), which once used to be the dominant party; the Social Democratic Party (SDP); the Democratic Party (DP); and the Social Party (SP). The latter are all small parties with small constituencies, and no clear and original agenda. Not surprisingly, the NDPT won the overwhelming majority of the votes, i.
Six registered parties participated in the elections: the National Democratic Party of Tajikistan (NDPT), which is the party of the President and consequently the most popular and strongest; the Islamic Revival Party (IRP) with its biggest support in the rural areas especially in the central valleys; the Communist Party (CP), which once used to be the dominant party; the Social Democratic Party (SDP); the Democratic Party (DP); and the Social Party (SP). The latter are all small parties with small constituencies, and no clear and original agenda. Not surprisingly, the NDPT won the overwhelming majority of the votes, i.e. fifty-four seats that made up 74 percent of all seats. The IRP received the same number of seats, two, as it did in the 2000 elections. The CP turned out to be the biggest loser of this election, as in comparison to its thirteen seats in 2000 it won only four this year. The SDP, DP, and SP did not win any seats. Despite this ‘outstanding’ victory of the NDPT, there were no riots or tensions in the republic, as opposed to neighboring Kyrgyzstan, where the spring parliamentary elections resulted in the overthrow of President Askar Akaev.

Although the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (OSCE/ODIHR) claimed that the parliamentary elections in Tajikistan failed to meet international standards for democratic elections, the biggest contributors to the low standard of the elections was not fraud or harassment by the dominant party, but rather the inexperience in holding democratic elections and the harsh economic and climate conditions in the remote constituencies of the republic, namely the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Province (GBAO), where bad weather prevented many observers from arriving on time. Especially during the winter time, lack of electricity was one of the biggest barriers to ensure orderly elections on the day of voting.

The NDPT most likely indeed won the majority of votes, firstly because of the increasing popularity of President Rakhmonov in Tajikistan. Secondly, the absence of attractive programs on the part of the other parties strengthened the incumbent. In fact, most of the opposition parties, eg. SDP, DP, and SP have very similar platforms. Finally, the political consciousness of most of the Tajik people is limited to the idea that there must be a leader, who is associated with the state; therefore, the Presidents’ party should naturally win. It is possible that the CP lost some of its votes to the NDPT due to the unfair and unequal election campaign; however, part of the population did not vote for it, because the nostalgia for communism is over by now.

On the positive side, it is worth noting that the elections took place peacefully and there was some elements of democracy in that six parties openly competed. Besides, Tajikistan is the only country in the region to have an officially registered Islamic party. In addition, the GBAO with 5 percent of Tajikistan’s population was one of the oppositionist regions during the civil war, but now it has 9 percent of the seats in the Parliament, revealing that it is actually privileged. More importantly, the general mood of the population was satisfied with the elections. The first open elections in independent Tajikistan caused a civil war; therefore, every election is perceived by the people as something to be cautious of. Consequently, as peace is the main priority in Tajikistan, it is in fact one of the unifying factors in the country just as victory over Fascism was for the people of the Soviet Union, Tajikistan’s citizens are happy that the elections did not cause any tension. Surprisingly, even a member of the IRP in Dushanbe noted in an interview that “as long as the NDPT in general and the President in particular maintain stability and peace in the country, my party and I are happy with it”. Realistically then, such an outcome is better than what took place in Kyrgyzstan, where small groups of people overthrew the government and instead of creating stability the new regime is actually making peace uncertain in that country.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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