Wednesday, 27 July 2005

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN IRAN AND PROSPECTS FOR AZERBAIJAN

Published in Field Reports

By Gulnara Ismailova (7/27/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)

But at the same time, Azerbaijan and Iran have expanded economic cooperation during the last year. So, in comparison with 1998, trade turnover has increased by 6 and has reached US$600 million a year. Economists say at this rate, Azerbaijan-Iranian economic cooperation will increase to up to US$1 billion a year soon.
But at the same time, Azerbaijan and Iran have expanded economic cooperation during the last year. So, in comparison with 1998, trade turnover has increased by 6 and has reached US$600 million a year. Economists say at this rate, Azerbaijan-Iranian economic cooperation will increase to up to US$1 billion a year soon.

In the beginning of this year, during Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s official visit to Iran, up to 10 intergovernmental documents were signed, including agreements on the allocation by the Iranian Bank of Development of Export of a credit for the sum of $40 million for the construction of a strategic highway between Baku and Astara, and also constructing a railroad line connecting the two countries. The decisions should accelerate the process of realization of the \"North-south\" transportation project.

The announcement of the final results of the ninth presidential elections in Iran, contradicting forecasts, was held in two rounds for the first time, and revealed a new tendency in the political life of the Islamic republic. According to official information, having collected about 62 percent of votes, mayor of Teheran Mahmud Ahmadinejad in the second round left behind ex-president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who collected ca. 35 percent of the votes.

The surprise election of Ahmadinejad drew the attention of the wider region, and for Baku it is now a matter of priority to find out whether the president-elect is capable of showing pragmatism in the development of relations with Azerbaijan and identify focal points of mutual interest.

Immediately after the announcement of official election results, Ilham Aliyev directed one of the first congratulatory messages to Ahmadinejad. In his turn, Iran’s ambassador to Azerbaijan, the ethnic Azeri Afshar Suleymani declared that the foreign policy of Iran will be based henceforth on mutual trust and mutual interests. \"Azerbaijan is a country taking an important place in the foreign policy of Iran. Regardless of the person who will be head of state in Iran, the policy of official Teheran concerning Azerbaijan will not undergo changes\", the ambassador noted.

However, Azerbaijani political expert Rasim Musabeyov commented that Azerbaijan was clearly favoring a Rafsanjani victory. \"Azerbaijan as a neighbor of Iran’s is interested in stable mutual relations between Iran and the West. The deterioration of the geopolitical situation in the region constitutes threats for Azerbaijan as well. But the unexpected victory of the young politician, unsophisticated in international affairs and in public administration exposes both the state and the region as a whole to serious risk\".

At the same time, before the beginning of the second tour of elections in Iran, the Movement of national Awakening of Southern Azerbaijan (MNASA), representing the interests of the Azeri population of Iran, together with other organizations of national minorities disseminated a joint application, calling to boycott presidential elections in Iran. The head of MNASA’s Baku office Huseyn Turkelli argues there is no force accepted to positions of authority not professing the interests of the Persians. \"The Azeris of Iran saw no difference in the election. Rafsanjani is the biggest chauvinist among politicians of Iran. And Ahmadinejad is the most fanatical of all known religious fundamentalists. The Victory of Ahmadinejad has become some kind of success of one of the two competing mullah groupings in ruling circles of the country. Authorities don’t care about problems of human rights, democratization and freedom of speech. All candidates for president were carriers of ideas of the Iranian regime\", argued Turkelli.

Official Teheran appears increasingly interested in good relations with Baku. With mounting U.S. charges against Iran as regards the Iranian nuclear weapons program, Iran needs Azerbaijan as a neutral party in the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. Iran also wants to secure itself against possible provocations from the North. This likely contributed to Iran’s unexpected consent to open an Azerbaijani consulate general Tabriz, which Baku has sought for a decade.

However, at the same time, the Party of democratic reforms of Azerbaijan (PDRA) was recently created in Baku, which considers as one of its objectives the struggle for the national rights of the Azeris of Iran. Member of Parliament Sabir Rustamkhanly also informed on the publication of the independent magazine “Baku-Tabriz\". \"Today in Iran there is no opportunity even to study the native language at school. We are going to draw the attention of the international society to this issue. We have no right to stand aside\", declared Rustamkhanly.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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