By Nurshat Ababakirov (10/17/2007 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Less than a week before the national referendum, Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiev appears vigilant to secure the successful passage of his draft constitution, to establish a favorable ground for his Ak-Zhol Party in the likely ensuing parliamentary elections, and, more importantly, to persuade the public that what he is up to is for the country’s sake. The president has good chances to create a monopoly over three branches of power starting already from 2009. This prospect leaves the opposition parties little time for deliberation but to straighten up their party lines and prepare for the elections.

By Sebastien Peyrouse (10/3/2007 issue of the CACI Analyst)

In his April 2007 visit to Bishkek, Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev announced his desire to create a Union of Central Asian states. Projects of regional integration are usually ill-received among Central-Asian elites, who suspect the country initiating them of seeking to arrogate the role of a new “big brother”.

By Michael Coffey (10/3/2007 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Plans to send more contract troops to the northern Caucasus, trained specifically for mountain and counterinsurgency operations, is a sign that the Russian defense ministry has a firm grasp of the security needs for the region. Still, despite some progress on the security front, poverty and lawlessness remain acute problems in Dagestan, as elsewhere in the Caucasus. The appointment of a new, reform-minded president, and the reported deaths of significant terrorist leaders, suggests authorities may be replicating Chechnya’s modest success.