THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS: IMPLICATIONS FOR RUSSIAN POLICY IN THE NORTH CAUCASUS
By Kevin Daniel Leahy (3/25/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The current global economic crisis has forced difficult choices on governments across the world. Against a backdrop of falling oil prices on the international market, the Russian government has already overseen the gradual devaluation of the rouble and is making preparations to recapitalize several large, private and state-owned banks. But what does this difficult economic situation herald for Chechnya, one of the poorest republic’s in Russia, and how will Moscow’s policies toward this locale (and neighbouring Ingushetia) be affected by the global economic crisis?
BACKGROUND: Over the past eight years the ruling regime established in Chechnya by the Kremlin has been the recipient of truly fantastic sums of money from the federal budget.
SOUTH OSSETIA: KGB BACKYARD IN THE CAUCASUS
By Konstantin Preobrazhensky (3/11/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
South Ossetia has been exposed to an extensive KGB presence. Russia is, according to its friendship treaty with South Ossetia, entitled to deploy its Border Guards there. These are part of the KGB’s successor, the FSB (the Federal Security Service).
MOSCOW FACES TOUGH CHOICES REGARDING IRAN
By Richard Weitz (3/11/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
International security experts warn that Iran is about to obtain sufficient enriched uranium through its indigenous nuclear program to be able to manufacture at least one nuclear weapon, giving it “nuclear breakout capability.” The Obama administration is now seeking to gain greater Russian assistance to avert such an outcome, offering the prospect of concessions regarding the planned deployments of U.S.
THE GROWING TRADE STAKES OF THE CHINESE-KYRGYZ-UZBEK RAILWAY PROJECT
By Sébastien Peyrouse (3/11/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
For nearly fifteen years, the idea of building a railway line linking China to the Uzbek part of the Fergana Valley via Kyrgyz territory has run up against multiple problems, divergences of opinion, and technical difficulties. Since 2008, however, things seem to be taking a more positive shape, now that there has been a change of scale in the economic stakes: opening up the Uzbek market would facilitate a boom in trade with China, while Bishkek also hopes to hold off the competition coming from Kazakhstan and Tajikistan and to shore up its status as the foremost platform in Central Asia for the re-export of Chinese products.
BACKGROUND: This railway project was launched in 1996 by Tashkent, and a first tripartite commission met the following year.
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Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.