MONGOLIA TO BECOME CENTRAL ASIA’S MINING EL DORADO?
By John Daly (10/28/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On October 6 Mongolia’s government signed an agreement with Canada’s Ivanhoe Mines Ltd and London-based Rio Tinto mining companies to develop what will be the world’s largest copper mine. The agreement follows six years of torturous negotiations between Ulaanbaatar and the foreign consortiums, but the imminent establishment of the US$ 4 billion Oyuu Tolgoi ("Turquoise Hill") mining site is expected to yield a billion pounds of copper and 330,000 ounces of gold every year for at least the next four decades, with peak output of more than 725,000 tons of copper annually projected to occur within six years after start-up.
BACKGROUND: While Mongolia’s economy was traditionally based on herding and agriculture, the country also has some of Asia’s richest deposits of minerals and neighboring China’s rising demand for minerals has underpinned its current mining boom.
THE EU’S CONFLICT PREVENTION FAILURE IN GEORGIA
By Nicu Popescu (10/14/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On September 30, the EU fact-finding mission published its report on the Russian-Georgian war in August 2008. The report argues that Russia is responsible for a number of illegal acts in Georgia’s conflict zones, but that the escalation to large-scale hostilities on 7 August came following Georgia’s decision to launch an attack on South Ossetia.
TAJIKISTAN REACTS TO INCREASING UNREST IN AFGHANISTAN
By Dmitry Shlapentokh (10/14/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The situation in Afghanistan is becoming increasingly grave, at least from the perspective of the Western alliance. The Central Asian states bordering Afghanistan, Tajikistan being a prime example, seem increasingly alarmed, implying that they may put their hopes to Russia for security guarantees. Tajikistan nevertheless recently demonstrated that its elite does not trust anyone, Russia included, and is possibly looking for other ways of dealing with the Taliban threat.
GENERAL McCRYSTAL’S CONFIDENTIAL ASSESSMENT: A CASE FOR REDEFINING VICTORY IN AFGHANISTAN
By Roman Muzalevsky (10/14/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
A confidential assessment of the situation in Afghanistan by the head of NATO troops, General Stanley McChrystal, points to a light in the dark tunnel that can only be sustained if Presdient Barack Obama approves McChrystal’s request for up to 40,000 additional U.S.
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Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.