Kazakhstan's Counter-Terrorism Strategies for The Post-2013 Security Environment
By Jacob Zenn (the 04/09/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Since the first terrorist attacks struck Kazakhstan in 2011, the country has reformed its counter-terrorism strategy to confront emerging threats. Kazakhstan learned that more intelligence and understanding of extremists could have prevented the attacks. The country also saw that counter-radicalization programs are necessary to counter Salafism, which is anathema to the country’s religious traditions and can serve as a gateway to jihadism. In the near future, Kazakhstan will also focus on regional counter-terrorism cooperation to limit the fallout of wars abroad on the home front.
Tajikistan's Private Sector Loses Its Leader and Coordinating Council
By Oleg Salimov (the 04/09/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The upcoming presidential elections in Tajikistan this fall will be a determinant of political developments in the country in coming years. There is little doubt that the current president Emomali Rakhmon will seize the opportunity to stay in power for a fourth presidential term secured by a 2003 referendum. While there has been no formal statement on whether Rakhmon will run again, his political opponents have recently experienced increased pressure, implying that Rakhmon is preparing the ground for a head start. The arrest of Zaid Saidov, a businessman and leader of the newly founded political party New Tajikistan, demonstrates the precautions taken by the Tajik government ahead of the presidential elections.
North Caucasian Fighters Join Syrian Civil War
by Emil Souleimanov (the 08/21/13 issue of the CACI Analyst)
In mid-July, the Chechen Republic‘s President Ramzan Kadyrov admitted that Chechens have taken part in the Syria civil war on the side of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), allegations that he categorically denied one year ago. Simultaneously, the formal leader of the Caucasus Emirate Doku Umarov reversed his stance on the participation of Chechens in Syria. Umarov has earlier appealed to Chechen and North Caucasian youth to refrain from joining the Syria jihad and instead fight the “infidels” in their native land, but has now expressed his support for North Caucasian jihadists going to Syria, with the ultimate goal for them to return and join the insurgency upon their return from the Middle East.
Russia Pressures Armenia to Join Customs Union
by Stephen Blank (the 08/21/13 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The centerpiece of current Russian foreign policy is integrating as many post-Soviet states as possible in what will ultimately be a Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). The first step of this process is to join a Customs Union and Russia is bringing enormous pressure to bear upon Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Ukraine, and now Armenia to join. It is being made clear to these states that if they join the EEU or what Moscow calls EURASEC, they will not be able to join other trade organizations, e.g. those inherent in the EU’s Eastern Partnership. While most publicity has focused on Ukraine, recent Russian policy towards Armenia is no less revealing of Moscow’s tactics and goals.
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Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.