Kakha Khizanishvili Viktor Chernomyrdin’s appointment as Russian Ambassador to Kiev was a sensation, since he had never bee
By BACKGROUND: The way Putin dealt with Gusinski and Berezovski sent a sound message that he was seriou (7/4/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)
CONCLUSIONS: Putin would not be able to launch such a large scale campaign against Berezovski, Gusinski, Viakherev and Chernomyrdin without the support of other oligarchs whose support he obtained early in his career, and who accepted his rule and evidently agreed to subdue and serve his interests (like Abramovich and Chubais). At the same time, Putin does not intend to remain dependent on the support of “loyal” oligarchs forever. He is bringing more and more of his own people into power.
PASHTUN DISAFFECTION: THREAT TO STABILITY IN AFGHANISTAN:
By Awamdost Pakhtunkhel (5/8/2002 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: Resentment among the Pashtun tribes are composed of political, economic, and religious factors. The most obvious factor is the political: the Pashtuns are by far the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan, yet have been sidelined in the interim government. Though no reliable demographic figures are available, the Pashtuns compose between 40 and 62 percent of Afghanistan\'s population (the latter figure is from a detailed study done by the WAK foundation), whereas the second largest group, the Tajiks, form from 15 to 25 percent.THE WIDER CONTEXT OF 'PEACEMAKING' IN THE CAUCASUS
By By Emin Alisayidov (8/1/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: The intensification of mediating efforts to negotiate an agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan by the OSCE Minsk Group (of which France, Russia and the US are co-chairmen) earlier this year, produced an upsurge of now-subsiding optimism. The head-on charge by US co-chair Ambassador Cavanaugh so early in the new Administration’s tenure, as well as President Bush’s and Secretary Powell’s direct participation, indicated the importance of the region for Washington. Importantly, the mediators seem to have abandoned their often-criticized competition and have found a way to work together.
THE "BLUE STREAM" GAS PROJECT: NOT A PIPE-DREAM ANYMORE
By Robert M. Cutler (8/1/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: In mid-December 1997 the Turkish prime minister then in office, Mesut Yilmaz, signed an agreement with the erstwhile Russian prime minister Viktor Chernomyrdin to build the so-called "Blue Stream" natural gas pipeline. Turkish press reports this spring led state prosecutors to examine the process by which the contract for construction of the Turkish segment was awarded, allegedly without tender. Political pressure forced the resignation, on April 26, of Cumhur Ersumer, the energy minister and a member of the Motherland Party, two days after the indictment on charges of corruption of fifteen government officials who, according to press reports, named Ersumer in connection with the probe.
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Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.