By Dr. Stephen Blank (8/16/2000 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND: Since 1992, there has been a steep rise in the incidence of Muslim insurgencies in both Russia and China. The escalating violence, originating but not confined to Xinjiang and Chechnya, added to fears of American/NATO support for other potential separatist movements have led China and Russia to display stronger expressions of partnership. Those expressions are intended to exclude the United States from the area, suppress local insurgency, cement ties with Central Asia's authoritarian rulers, suppress efforts by insurgents to link up with other insurgent movements across state lines, and expand the Shanghai-Five from a community of states sharing borders to a regional and collective security system explicitly designed against the United States and its positions on human rights, missile defense, and Asian security issues like Taiwan.

By Dr. Zurab Tchiaberashvili (8/30/2000 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND: Ukraine’s growing role in the Caucasus is reflected in The UN Security Council inclusion of Ukraine in a group nations helping the UN Secretary General to solve the Abkhazian conflict. Russian intended to use the CIS as a tool to impose its geopolitical and economic control over former Soviet republics. To protect themselves from Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Moldova created GUUAM that now includes Uzbekistan which is now a "Trojan Horse" within the CIS.

By Dr. Reuel Hanks (8/30/2000 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND: Since independence in 1991, the regime of Islam Karimov has maintained a steadfast campaign against political opponents, particularly those seeking legitimacy or consensus via Islam. Even before complete Soviet collapse, the organizational meeting of the Islamic Revival Party in early 1990 was broken up by government forces, and throughout the last decade, the threat of an alleged "Wahhabist" movement in the Fergana Valley has provided the rationale for a consistent campaign of intimidation and arrest. Rather than secure religious freedom, a new statute on religion passed in 1998 gave the government sweeping powers to crush any "unsanctioned" religious activity.