THE SURPRISE OF ABKHAZ ELECTIONS
By John Mackedon (10/20/2004 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND:The ensuing struggle has resulted in a number of resignations and appointments, including the appointment of Nodar Khabasha, who openly stated that he was sent directly by Russian President Vladimir Putin to help “stabilize” the situation in Abkhazia as well as the resignation of the Chairman of the CEC as well as the filing for resignation by the Chairman of the regional Supreme Court; it has not, however, resulted in a final President-elect. Abkhazia has practiced de-facto independence since it split from Georgia after a civil war in 1992-93, a war that was clearly won through Russian intervention. Since that time the breakaway republic has had only one president, Vladislav Ardzinba, who assumed power before the war had even played itself out and was ultimately elected president in the first two presidential elections held in the region, in 1994 and 1999.WHAT COMES AFTER BESLAN?
By Stephen Blank (10/6/2004 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: Since September 11 Putin has frequently acknowledged the legitimacy of the foreign (not only American) military presence in the former Soviet Union. At the same time he and his government, most of which is more clearly against that presence as is the Russian elite, has insisted on a time limit to it as soon as hostilities in Afghanistan are over. Yet it is also clear that Russia’s security sector (police, intelligence, and military formations) cannot defend Russia or project power to the CIS effectively in order to defeat the scourge of terrorism or help those regimes do so.COULD THE ‘DEAL OF THE CENTURY’ STILL LIVE UP TO ITS NAME?
By Pavel K. Baev (10/6/2004 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: Ten years ago, on 20 September 1994, the newly-forged consortium of several international oil companies, called the Azerbaijan International Operating Company (AIOC), signed the agreement with the government of Azerbaijan on the development of three oilfields: Azeri, Chirag, and Guneshli. It was BP that had worked hardest and lobbied the smartest in preparation for this agreement, but it had to cut in Amoco, Pennzoil, and Unocal from the U.S.KAZAKHSTAN HOLDS ELECTIONS FOR A NEW PARLIAMENT
By Robert M. Cutler (10/6/2004 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: In 1994 Kazakhstan elected its First (post-Soviet) Parliament, on the basis of the country’s first post-Soviet constitution. It was dissolved very soon thereafter when, on the basis of accusation of electoral fraud by one anti-Nazarbaev candidate in a single electoral district, the Constitutional Court ruled the entire parliament to be illegal. President Nazarbaev then ruled by decree for over a year.Visit also
Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.