KAZAKH DECISION TO JOIN BTC PIPELINE MAY ALTER DELICATE REGIONAL DYNAMICS
By Michael Denison (6/28/2006 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: The agreement signed by Nazarbayev allows for the annual transit of approximately 53 million barrels of Kazakh crude through BTC, with an eventual staged increase to 175 million barrels per year. Four companies with a combined shareholding of 55 percent in Agip KCO, which manages the giant offshore Kashagan project in Kazakhstan, also have a 15 percent stake in the BTC pipeline consortium. Accordingly, it is likely that most of the Kazakh crude supplied to BTC will come from the Kashagan field once it comes into production in late 2008 or early 2009.AFTER SHANGHAI: GEOPOLITICAL SHIFTS IN EURASIA
By Ariel Cohen (6/28/2006 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: President Vladimir Putin has announced that Iran views the latest incentive package offered by the West, Russia and China positively, and will negotiate. But the Iranian nuclear program was not even officially on the agenda of the SCO summit. Instead, both Russia and China went out of their way to stroke their Iranian guest, rather than rebuking his hate-mongering rhetoric or nuclear ambitions.ARMENIA’S RULING COALITION UNRAVELS
By Grigor Hakobyan (6/14/2006 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: On May 29th, Artur Baghdasaryan officially relinquished his position as the Chairman of National Assembly of Armenia. His resignation was caused by growing differences between his party and the presidential administration, as well as its partners in the coalition, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun) and the Republican Party of Armenia. To some external political observers, the history of disagreements between the outspoken Chair of National Assembly, often accused by his opponents for engaging in populism, began last year.THE “CARTOON CRISIS” IN IRANIAN AZERBAIJAN: IS AZERI NATIONALISM UNDERESTIMATED?
By Emil Souleimanov (6/14/2006 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: The matter of this unfortunate caricature is not an isolated affair. Indeed, it cannot be viewed simply in the context of Persian national folklore, in which the image of an “Azerbaijani” is depicted as the embodiment of rural stupidity, headstrongness and craftiness, as feeling lost in an urban environment and as speaking with a comical accent. The roots of the current crisis run much deeper.Visit also
Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.