By Arslan Sabyrbekov
July 19th, the CACI Analyst
Four parliamentary factions have recently offered to conduct a constitutional referendum in fall 2016, together with elections to the local municipal councils. Holding a nationwide referendum requires the passage of a special law by two thirds of the parliamentarians. Without much public deliberation, the law has already passed its first reading, with second and third readings scheduled to take place in September. The upcoming referendum will be the sixth ever since the adoption of the first constitution in 1993.
By Franz J. Marty
September 8th, 2016, The CACI Analyst
Many accounts allege that the terrorist organization known as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has expanded to northern Afghanistan and intends to infiltrate Central Asia from there. Taking a closer look, however, it becomes apparent that virtually all such claims lack a sound foundation and that the remaining, more specific hints like reported sightings of black flags also stand on shaky ground. Consequentially, and contrary to the eastern parts of Afghanistan, there is no compelling evidence of a presence of the self-styled Caliphate in northern Afghanistan and, hence, also no immediate threat to Central Asia.
By Robert M. Cutler
August 28th, 2016, The CACI Analyst
On June 25, Presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia and Xi Jinping of China met in Beijing, immediately after spending two days together in Tashkent at a summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). The two countries’ industrial cooperation is dominated by the energy sector, where the several dozen agreements that were signed in Beijing confirmed that in bilateral economic and trade relations China is the agenda-maker and Russia is the agenda-taker. This relationship is now extending itself to the geoeconomic competition between the two in Central Asia and East Central Eurasia generally, as well as into Greater South Asia at a slower pace.
By Richard Weitz
August 24th, 2016, The CACI Analyst
NATO’s Warsaw summit on July 8-9 made progress in strengthening Baltic security, enhancing the alliance’s counterterrorism and cyber defense capabilities, and strengthening relations with the European Union (EU). But the alliance has still not solved the challenge of ensuring the security of non-member states, including Afghanistan as well the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
By Farkhod Tolipov
July 27th, 2016, The CACI Analyst
50 years ago, Uzbekistan’s capital Tashkent hosted a summit ending the India-Pakistan war of 1965, resulting in the Tashkent Declaration. It was, so to speak, a Soviet “Camp David” aimed at bringing two antagonists – India and Pakistan – to peace. The SCO summit of June 2016 was, symbolically speaking, a second – multilateral – platform created in the same place, Tashkent, for the same two states to restore peace. Yet this summit did not appear to be a second Tashkent “Camp David,” but rather a challenge for the SCO itself.
The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.