Wednesday, 01 June 2005

OLIGARCHS DECLARE A CEASE-FIRE IN AZERBAIJAN

Published in Field Reports

By Anar Kerimov (6/1/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The struggle between Aliyev and Heydarov, perhaps the most powerful oligarchs in the country, escalated after the election of President Ilham Aliyev in October 2003. During President Heydar Aliyev’s presidency, both officials kept a low profile and did not dare to have an open struggle for economic influence in the country. Yet, after 2003, having received more freedom in their actions, Aliyev and Heydarov launched a fierce fight against each other, using both media outlets and local businesses.
The struggle between Aliyev and Heydarov, perhaps the most powerful oligarchs in the country, escalated after the election of President Ilham Aliyev in October 2003. During President Heydar Aliyev’s presidency, both officials kept a low profile and did not dare to have an open struggle for economic influence in the country. Yet, after 2003, having received more freedom in their actions, Aliyev and Heydarov launched a fierce fight against each other, using both media outlets and local businesses.

Specifically, Aliyev accuses his rival of hindering the economic development of the country by imposing a monopoly on the import and export of goods, which in turn ruins the competitive nature of the market economy in the country. Indeed, the majority of businessmen in Azerbaijan complain that the export and import of goods is monopolized by Heydarov, his companies and close associated and that average businessmen do not have a chance to enter this business. Controlling exports and imports, Heydarov is also able to artificially increase the prices of goods in the country, reaping maximum profits. As a result, domestic production suffers and the population complains about price inflation.

At first, President Aliyev seemed to have sided with Heydarov. In December of last year, the President signed a decree on taking out some of the functions of the Ministry of Economic Development, such as the control over industrial development, and transferring them to the Ministry of Energy. Local experts viewed this as a victory by Heydarov over Farhad Aliyev and the President’s desire to calm down the Minister of Economy. Indeed, the struggle between them was getting out of control and media outlets were covering it very broadly.

Nevertheless, the struggle did not calm down. Meanwhile, the price inflation in the country reached its peak at the end of 2004 and the beginning of 2005, with the general public openly protesting against it. The matter was even discussed at an emergency session of the economic council, chaired by the President himself. It became clear that the skyrocketing prices started hurting the political ratings of the ruling party, which could have very dangerous consequences considering the upcoming parliamentary elections in the country.

At the same time, Farhad Aliyev has skillfully used the influence of the powerful businessmen and media outlets to further ruin the standing of Heydarov. The council of entrepreneurs, which consists of major businessmen in the country and is chaired by Farhad Aliyev, organized a conference in which accusations against Heydarov rained. Some international financial institutions and media outlets followed suit.

The results of these attacks did not take too long to materialize. President Aliyev reportedly ordered Heydarov to control the actions of the customs officials and make sure that inflation is curbed. Furthermore, Heydarov was left in a difficult situation with an increasingly negative image.

Perhaps in an effort to manage the situation, Heydarov took immediate action, similar to those taken by Farhad Aliyev. Within one week, Heydarov gathered the same entrepreneurs and created a new council with them and the Custom’s committee as well as speaking in several TV programs regarding the performance of the Customs officials. Such frequent appearances on TV and meetings with journalists during self-initiated press conferences is known as a feature of Heydarov.

Meanwhile, the Azadlig newspaper reported that a cease-fire has been declared between the powerful officials. Yet, rumors circulate in the press that Heydarov is planning to open a TV channel of his own as well as fund the election campaign of dozens of candidates in order to gain support in the new Parliament, so one should definitely expect another round in the struggle between Azerbaijan’s oligarchs.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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