As Asian Development Bank official Ashraf Malik pointed out, in Central Asia more than anywhere else in the world, the solution to water management problem stands out as a top priority. The past decade has shown that the attainment of a compromise between Central Asian countries is not so easy as it can be imagined. The rows over depleting water resources have been flaring up between mountainous countries Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan for many years. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan also see no end to their disputes over water sharing. To complicate matters further, Turkmenistan announced it would not participate in the water management project. What alarms adjacent countries most is the planned construction of a huge water reservoir on the Karashor lowlands of Turkmenistan. It is not likely that Turkmenistan will abandon this project, considered vital for its agriculture, just because neighbors protest against it. In Central Asia, where intergovernmental relations are more often regulated by the law of jungle than by a reasonable consensus, states in the upstream river basins misuse water to their own advantage, making a common water policy almost impossible, at least for the time being.
Kazakhstan, largely dependent on water resources from Kyrgyzstan, this year has faced acute irrigation problems in the cotton- and rice-growing southern regions. While in winter months vast areas of Kyzylorda region were flooded by excess water discharged from Toktogul hydroelectric power plant in Kyrgyzstan which washed away the upper soil on 1,000 hectares, the summer was abnormally dry. As a result of the flooding recurring annually, 30,000 hectares were rendered barren since 2001. This year’s rice crop shrinked to 36 quintals from 40 quintals last year. Rice producers complained that they failed to meet the target of 232,875 tons. Kazakhstan consumes 135,000 tons of rice annually, and 20 000 tons are exported, mainly to Russia and Belarus. Considering that the Kyzylorda region alone, with a population well over 600,000, consumes 60,000 tons of rice, this year’s agricultural output is quite miserable.
The mainly cotton-producing South Kazakhstan region was also hardly hit by water shortage. Last year, cotton growers sold their produce for the attractive price of 90,000 Tenge a ton. But this year the price plummeted to 40,000. The government is incurring heavy losses subsidizing water-intensive cotton production. In 2002, over 136 million Tenge were allocated from the national budget for the purchase of insecticides alone. This year the amount of subsidy went up to 441 million tenge. It’s like throwing sacks of money into a black hole. It is obvious to Agriculture Ministry officials that if water problem remain unsolved, Kazakh cotton will not be able to compete with cheap Chinese produce on the world market. They are desperately looking for ways of diversifying production to make it profitable. The minister of economy and budget planning Kairat Aitekenov disclosed recently that the ministry was considering the possibility of cooperating with Adidas Company. The minister of agriculture Akhmetzhan Yesimov went as far as to say that Kazakhstan was to set up a free economic space to boost the cotton industry in South Kazakhstan region.
But all these projects are easily said than done. The production of competitive high-quality cotton is a must for Kazakhstan which hopes to enter the World trade Organization. To achieve this objective, the government must come to terms with its neighbors. All countries would benefit greatly from genuine cooperative water management in the region.
Book S. Frederick Starr and Svante E. Cornell,