Significantly, the Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan (DCK) was the only political organization in Kazakhstan to send its representatives to attend the inauguration ceremony of the democratically elected Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. The leadership of Kazakhstan, which earlier did not miss the opportunity to rush to Baku as Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan was inaugurated as President, conspicuously ignored the official event. The pro-government media still remains tight-lipped about the “velvet revolution” in Georgia. This awkward silence, however, is more eloquent than any words given the political conditions of Kazakhstan.

The bloodless change of power in Georgia stirred up political movements in Kazakhstan to more decisive steps. The leader of the Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan, transformed from a popular movement into a political party, Assylbek Kozhakhmetov, said that the trip to Georgia, timed to the inauguration of Mikheil Saakashvili, was also effectively used to establish ties with democrats there. Even the most conservative pro-presidential “Otan” party seems to pick up the scent of changes in the political climate. An advisor to the chairman of “Otan”, Bolatkhan Taizhan, startled his fellow party members with a statement that “top state bodies, even the administration of the President for that matter, should be formed on a multiparty basis’.

To hush up grumblers from the opposition, the government skillfully juggles economic figures. And this produces the desired effect on the masses. The National Statistical Board registered 8.8% economic growth in 2003. GDP increased to $30 billion. Per capita income in Kazakhstan is much higher than in other Central Asian countries. Sober economic analysis, nevertheless, reveal that last year’s GDP exceeds 1991 level only by 6.3%. In January, compared to December of 2003, food prices hiked up to 1.2%. In the oil-producing Atyrau and Mangystau regions, 40.9 and 46.2%, respectively, of the population live below the poverty line. Last year, according to independent analysts, Kazakhstan lost its leading position in GDP growth to Armenia, Azerbaijan and even Tajikistan. The economy is strangled by a foreign debt of over $3 billion.

Yerlan Karin from the Almaty-based International Institute of Modern Politics says that by exaggerating economic achievements, the government risks to fall into a pitfall. If the economy is thriving, it is quite logical for people to demand accelerated political reforms as the next step. But the slow pace of political reforms is the Achilles’ heel of Kazakhstan.

According to experts at the Adil Soz Foundation for monitoring the media situation, Kazakhstan’s media law is the toughest in Central Asia. Journalists, as in communist times, are placed under close police surveillance. They are often barred from attending rallies organized by the opposition. To cite only one case, only two journalists appeared to a press conference held by the Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan Party in Petropavlovsk (North Kazakhstan) on March 4. Both were from non-government papers.

The political agenda of the DCK included radical political demands such as the introduction of amendments to the Constitution, the election of akims (governors) and judges, enhancing the power of local legislative bodies, while limiting presidential power. Amid growing clamors for fair elections and pressure from the OSCE, the Central Election Committee hastened to announce the proposed introduction of an electronic vote counting system. But this belated move is hardly practicable in a country with a chronic shortage of funds. At any rate, it is almost certain that the coming parliamentary elections in autumn will be held under the old regulations which leave uncountable loopholes for the manipulation of election results.

Some events, such as the release of opposition leader Galimzhan Zhakiyanov from his prison cell, the registration of the DVC party, promises of a new election law etc. may signal a positive impact of the Georgian velvet revolution on political events in Kazakhstan. But it would be too optimistic to say, as some experts assert, that Kazakhstan will be the next country in the CIS to follow the Georgian example. The specific political culture of Kazakhstan, the mentality of the nation, and economic factors should all be taken into account. Despite the worsening economic situation, the living standard in Kazakhstan is not as low as it is in Georgia.

The present alignment of political forces does not favor the opposition. While the “Asar” party founded by Dariga Nazarbayeva, the daughter of the president, is expanding its influence using unlimited administrative power, the Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan sees itself without reliable allies. The relations between the DVC and “Ak Zhol” Party have turned lukewarm as a result of divergences over tactical issues. Communists are grappling with dissent within their own ranks that finally led to the creation of two opposing factions.

Furthermore, the majority of the population has grown weary of the endless succession of political processes and unfulfilled promises. What people in the countryside want more are palpable social changes concerning their day-to-day needs. According to Nurbolat Masanov, a prominent political scientist, 95% of the population in Kazakhstan is left outside the political processes going on in the country. Many do not desire any changes in the existing system. This discouraging fact shows the wide gap between political parties and the population. With parliamentary elections approaching, both the opposition and the regime are more concerned with approaching battles for seats in parliament rather than with Georgian lessons.