Wednesday, 11 February 2004

IS AZERBAIJAN TURNING TOWARDS RUSSIA?

Published in Field Reports

By Fariz Ismailzade (2/11/2004 issue of the CACI Analyst)

During his three-day visit, Aliyev met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, Chairman of the Council of Federation Sergey Mironov and the Duma Chairman Boris Gryzlov. A previously unplanned meeting with Defense Minister Sergey Ivanov also took place. In addition to this, he made a speech at the Institute of International Studies in Moscow and held a press conference at ITAR-TASS news agency.
During his three-day visit, Aliyev met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, Chairman of the Council of Federation Sergey Mironov and the Duma Chairman Boris Gryzlov. A previously unplanned meeting with Defense Minister Sergey Ivanov also took place. In addition to this, he made a speech at the Institute of International Studies in Moscow and held a press conference at ITAR-TASS news agency. As a result of these negotiations, four intergovernmental agreements were signed. These included an agreement between the state information agencies AzerTac and ITAR-TASS; an agreement on mutual assistance in intelligence information; a protocol on the abolishment of tariff provisions from the free trade regime and a cooperation agreement in the humanitarian sector. Besides, the two presidents signed the \"Moscow declaration\", which outlines the main points of bilateral cooperation.

Speaking to journalists, Ilham Aliyev said, \"I am glad how bilateral relations are developing in all spheres. Today the political dialogue between Russia and Azerbaijan is at the highest level.\"

The two countries have been at odds since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Azerbaijan blamed Russia for supporting Armenia in the war over the Azerbaijani autonomous province of Nagorno-Karabakh. In 1997, a major political scandal broke out between the two neighbors, as Russian military officials admitted that they had illegally supplied Armenia with weapons worth $1 billion. Russia in turn looked suspiciously to Baku for its efforts to cooperate with western military and security institutions as well as attempts to bring Western oil companies into the Caspian region. Russian security forces also blamed the Azerbaijani government for supporting Chechens rebels.

This trend slowly changed since the election of Vladimir Putin to the Presidency. Former Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev quickly found a common language with the new Russian leader and bilateral relations between the two countries warmed up. Agreements on the Russian lease of the Qabala Radar Station in Azerbaijan and the division of the Caspian Sea were subsequently signed.

Local analysts believe that the recent attention of the Russian leadership to Azerbaijan is related to the increasing U.S. presence in the Caucasus and the possible plans to open military bases in Azerbaijan. U.S. Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld traveled to Baku two months ago to discuss these plans as well as the overall participation of Azerbaijan in the war on terrorism. It is likely that Putin has decided to play sticks and carrots with the newly elected Azerbaijani president to prevent the establishment of these bases in its \"near abroad.\"

\"Those difficulties that we faced in post-Soviet period will not longer hinder our cooperation. I am sure that the visit of Ilham Aliyev will serve as a catalyst for the further development of bilateral relations in all spheres,\" said the Russian President following the his meeting with Ilham Aliyev. Putin also seems to want more Azerbaijani cooperation regarindg the Chechen problem. On the day of Ilham Aliyev\'s visit a terror act in the Moscow metro took 39 lives and once again reminded of the problem of terrorism around the world. \"The mutual fight against terrorism is one of the main topics of our meetings. We will further unite our efforts in this issue. I don\'t doubt that our law-enforcement bodies will develop a successful cooperation on this issue. I know that in Azerbaijan relevant measures are taken to fight terrorism. Only by uniting our efforts, we can fight this disease of the twenty-first century,\" noted Vladimir Putin.

Despite economic and security items on the agenda of Ilham Aliyev\'s visit, Azerbaijan\'s number one hope from this visit is Russia\'s help to resolve the 16-year long conflict on Nagorno-Karabakh. Ilham Aliyev expressed his desire to see more active Russian participation in the peace process within the OSCE\'s Minsk group, charged with finding a peaceful settlement to this territorial conflict.

While many believe that the visit will boost the bilateral relations, few expect concrete results on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The Azerbaijani opposition has already criticized Aliyev for making too many concessions to Russia.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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