The first warnings of the impending flood came from environmental groups in early December. These sources said that the level of the Syrdarya River which is shared by Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan was rising rapidly. But these warnings were not heeded in time by clumsy government bureaucracy. In fact, risings of water levels in the river occur every year. However, this year it was caused by the abnormally increased amount of water discharged from Toktogul hydroelectric power station in Kyrgyzstan. The Naryn River which feeds the Toktogul power station flows into Syrdarya.

Earlier, Kazakhstan used to provide the coal-fired power station in Bishkek with relatively cheap coal. This year Kazakhstan failed to cope with its deliveries, and Kyrgyzstan had to turn to hydroelectric stations, thereby dramatically increasing the discharge of water into Syrdarya. Until recently, the southern regions of Kazakhstan had been more or less reliably protected from flooding by the Shardara water reservoir with a holding capacity of 5.2 billion cubic meters. But given that a gigantic mass of water of up to 1500 cubic meters per second is incessantly pouring into Shardara, the reservoir will be very soon overfilled. This eventuality is the worst fear of the population in Kyzylorda region in the South.

On February 7, for the first time since the disaster began, Emergency Agency officials admitted publicly that many houses in some villages in the area had been irreparably destroyed and village residents were to be evacuated without delay. This admission is little solace for those who were left homeless by flooding. The water is continuing to overflow the banks of Syrdarya in many places paralyzing the life in villages, schools and hospitals. Authorities in Kyzylorda say that all attempts to prevent flooding by building dams and digging dikes had been fruitless.

It is feared that if further rising water levels are not to be stopped, more than 30 settlements in Kyzylorda and South Kazakhstan regions with a total population of 151,000 will be struck by floodwaters. It was reported by government sources that $1,240,700 were allocated from the state budget to combat the flooding. Nobody is sure that the lion’s share of the funds will not land up in the pockets of high officials.

On many occasions, the government has been assuring the public that there was nothing serious to be afraid of. The government media made front-page stories out of the talks in Shymkent, where deputy ministers of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan gathered to discuss the ways of averting flooding. Kyrgyzstan formally agreed to reduce the amount of discharge from the Toktogul hydroelectric power plant. Uzbeks, usually very tough customers for Kazakhstan, declared their readiness to increase the outflow of water from the upstream of Syrdarya River into Arnasay lowlands to 650 cubic meters per second. In the same breath, Uzbek officials expressed fear that the huge mass of water into Arnasay would destroy irrigation barrages in Uzbekistan. To compensate for the damage Kazakhstan would have to pay $4 million. The sum is more than the state with a meager budget can afford.

It turns out now that all these promises were nothing more than mere words. “We were trying to solve the problem on an intergovernmental level since the year 2000. Our parliament members have also repeatedly appealed to their Central Asian counterparts. But Uzbeks are invariably avoiding any contacts on a parliamentarian level” complains the member of parliament Toleubek Kosmambetov. At the end of January, the parliament fraction of the Agrarian Party of Kazakhstan renewed its appeal to parliamentarians of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. Messages were also sent to the governments of these countries. There were no encouraging responses from the neighbors.

It is becoming quite clear that Kazakhstan is left alone to grapple with the threat of flooding. Some economic advisors suggest building a new water reservoir on Syrdarya River. But government is not likely to give a go-ahead to the project which will cost, estimates say, $190 million. While people at the top are looking for easy solutions, residents of disaster areas are anticipating the springtime with growing alarm.