Wednesday, 19 November 2003

LEADING WESTERN FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS LEND MONEY TO BTC PIPELINE

Published in Field Reports

By Fariz Ismailzade (11/19/2003 issue of the CACI Analyst)

\"The EBRD financing will be used for portions of the pipeline in Azerbaijan and Georgia; Part of the EBRD loan for BTC will help the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) fund its 25 per cent stake in the pipeline\", said the bank\'s press release on November 11. Along with BP and the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR), other pipeline sponsors are TPAO (Turkey), Statoil (Norway), Unocal (USA), Itochu (Japan), Amerada Hess (USA), Eni (Italy), TOTAL (France), INPEX (Japan) and ConocoPhillips (USA). Ex-President of Azerbaijan Heydar Aliyev last year signed a decree on allocating money from the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan to finance the SOCAR\'s share in the pipeline.
\"The EBRD financing will be used for portions of the pipeline in Azerbaijan and Georgia; Part of the EBRD loan for BTC will help the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) fund its 25 per cent stake in the pipeline\", said the bank\'s press release on November 11. Along with BP and the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR), other pipeline sponsors are TPAO (Turkey), Statoil (Norway), Unocal (USA), Itochu (Japan), Amerada Hess (USA), Eni (Italy), TOTAL (France), INPEX (Japan) and ConocoPhillips (USA). Ex-President of Azerbaijan Heydar Aliyev last year signed a decree on allocating money from the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan to finance the SOCAR\'s share in the pipeline.

The BTC pipeline, at a total cost of $3.6 billion, has long been under doubt regarding its commercial profitability. Opponents of the project have been arguing that the pipeline threatens the environment of the region. The supporters, on the other hand, have emphasized the geopolitical benefits of the pipeline, which links Caucasus to the European markets and thus secures the independence of Azerbaijan and Georgia. Both the US administration and the local governments of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey strongly lobbied for the pipeline\'s realization despite Russian and Iranian objections.

The construction of the pipeline is expected to finish in early 2005 and the first oil from the Azeri-Chirag deepwater field in the Caspian Sea will be delivered to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. Overall, the pipeline will have the capacity to deliver 1 million barrels of oil a day.

The decisions of the international financial institutions were long overdue. Local analysts argue that the western financial institutions took a careful approach, waiting to see if the succession of power in Azerbaijan would shake the fragile stability in the country or not. As the presidential elections in the country resulted in the continuation of the previous regime\'s policies, the IFC and EBRD felt safe to approve the decisions.

Together with financing the project, EBRD and British Petroleum, the main operator of the project, have each earmarked up to $25 million in grants and loans for the creation of long-term jobs and sustainable economic development after pipeline construction is complete. The initiative will foster private sector growth through a broad range of grassroots initiatives such as loans and grants to micro-businesses, training programs and infrastructure. Other members of the BTC consortium are expected to join with target funding overall of around $100 million.

In the press release of EBRD, it says that \"the bank conducted a thorough examination of the projects’ financial, legal, environmental and social impacts. They were shaped to meet EBRD, EU and World Bank standards, particularly with regard to environmental concerns and land compensation. As part of its deliberations, the EBRD met with many NGOs from the region and abroad, and together with the IFC held public meetings in Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey to hear the views of local communities.\"

These decisions effectively put an end to the arguments over the fate of the project. Earlier this year, a group of environmental and human rights NGOs, including Amnesty International and Friends of the Earth, advocated for a halt to the construction works due to its alleged danger to the environment. Some economists also expressed concerns that the pipeline might lose its commercial attraction due to the war in Iraq and falling oil prices.

Nevertheless, at this point, it is clear that the project will be completed and that there will be enough financing for the pipeline\'s construction. According to some estimates, the BTC project and subsequent export of oil from ACG fields will bring $30-40 billions in revenues for the Azeri Government. Georgia, in its turn, is expected to make 15% of its GDP from transit fees when the pipeline is operating at its full capacity. Should these revenues be carefully collected and spent, they are able to significantly improve the socio-economic situation in the region and boost the welfare of the impoverished populations of these countries. On the other hand, if transparency and accountability over revenues stay weak and corruption and embezzlement of oil money is widespread, growing gaps between the \"haves\" and \"have-nots\" could bring internal instability to the region.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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