Wednesday, 22 October 2003

CAN ISLAM BE A STRONG OPPOSITION FORCE IN UZBEKISTAN?

Published in Field Reports

By Rustam Mukhamedov (10/22/2003 issue of the CACI Analyst)

In the past, the territory of Uzbekistan was famous for its Islamic schools, which were located in Bukhara and Samarkand, and for theologians like Imam Al-Bukhari, who was one of the several scholars in the Islamic world, who collected the majority of the Hadith (the stories from the life of Prophet Mohammed). Being an Islamic center in Central Asia, the population of Uzbekistan is on the whole composed of more pious followers of Islam than the people of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. But today, Uzbekistan’s government tries to build a secular state, while fighting against radical movements such as the Islamic movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Wahhabi and Hizb-ut-Tahrir.
In the past, the territory of Uzbekistan was famous for its Islamic schools, which were located in Bukhara and Samarkand, and for theologians like Imam Al-Bukhari, who was one of the several scholars in the Islamic world, who collected the majority of the Hadith (the stories from the life of Prophet Mohammed). Being an Islamic center in Central Asia, the population of Uzbekistan is on the whole composed of more pious followers of Islam than the people of Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. But today, Uzbekistan’s government tries to build a secular state, while fighting against radical movements such as the Islamic movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), Wahhabi and Hizb-ut-Tahrir. This struggle started in 1995 when radical movements actively involved in the politics tried to form an organized opposition to the regime led by Islam Karimov. In February 1999, an attempt to assassinate the president failed. Since that time Tashkent started massive attacks on believers with little differentiation among schools of thought and movements. After 11 September, when the U.S.-led coalition began the war on terrorism in Afghanistan, Tashkent actively started to support it, while taking the opportunity to struggle more overtly against radical Islamic movements in Uzbekistan.

Today in Uzbekistan, Islamism has become the chief political opposition to the current regime of Islam Karimov and, has become increasingly politicized, advocating regime change and the implementation a Islamic law, Sharia. Increasing numbers of ordinary people today tend toward thinking that Islamic government can change the situation in the country. Turgunaka, the former chair of a mahalla (local self-administration) said: “If we will have Islam here, then it will improve our life”. This is only one of evidence of people who were former “government supporter” change their minds and lean toward the Islamic alternative.

In Uzbekistan today, there is no open opposition. Therefore Islamism became the only alternative for people who disagree with the regime. People do not have any chance to satisfy their needs and therefore they find Islam as an output of their frustration. Even Imams in mosques became government supporters, and they always ask God to bless the government during speeches at Friday prayers and Islamic Holidays. Moreover, the mass corruption, decay of social values, prostitution and bad economic conditions make ordinary people think that only by Islam it is possible to improve the current situation.

The economic situation is really bad today in Uzbekistan. A minimum basket of goods cost 170,000 sums, which is the average necessary for a family of four persons, but in fact the average salary is 15,000-20,000 sums. Working for government and getting such low salary forces people to find other ways to earn money, and if in such a position, people start accepting bribes.

The situation is much worse in the rural areas, where social and economic conditions and demographic problems are sever –there are even cases of starvation among people. These problems also push people toward the Islamist alternative, in turn helping radical movements to recruit ordinary people and especially youth in their activities. As the International Crisis Group puts it, “Closed political systems, lack of freedom of speech, lack of economic progress, and unreformed and brutal security services all contribute to the growth of radical opposition groups.”

Thus Islam today is the sole opposition to current regime. While ordinary people do not accept the idea of military struggle to change government as desired by Wahhabi movements and the IMU, they have slowly begun to accept that Islamic rule could improve their lives. This is the fundamental feature of Hizb-ut-Tahrir, which is oriented mostly on social, political and economic reforms. And it is possible that the Uzbekistani government is creating the ground for future massive Islamic opposition, which will be more powerful and popular among ordinary people in Uzbekistan.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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