Yet these officials did not manage to suppress the increasing speculations in the local media. The majority of local analysts agree that the article has a provocative character and has been ordered by circles, interested in destabilizing the bilateral relations between Azerbaijan and its southern neighbor. Yet, there is no consensus on who these circles are. The political commentator of the independent daily Echo Nurani went even further in analyzing the situation, by stating that Iranian circles were behind the article. \"These Iranian forces are using the media to send warnings to the Azerbaijani government\", she said in a TV interview.
Others believe that Russians or Armenians were behind the article. In any case, some of the political circles in Azerbaijan even responded positively to the news. These circles have long waited for an opportunity to punish Iran for its anti-Azerbaijani foreign policy. As expected, the Iranian government responded angrily to the Russian article. The Azerbaijani media even reported that some Iranian officials threatened Azerbaijan with war and the capture of Baku if the latter agrees to assist the Americans.
Iranian-Azerbaijani relations have been tense for over a decade, as both countries have a great level of distrust for each other. Although sharing the same Shi\'a Muslim religion and a common history, Iran and Azerbaijan have been at odds for most of the 1990s. Azerbaijan accused its southern neighbor of planting an Islamic revolution in the country, oppressing its 25 million Azeri minority and helping Azerbaijan\'s archrival Armenia. Iran, in its turn, accuses Azerbaijan in helping Americans and Israelis to control the Caspian region.
The two countries are also at a disagreement over the ways to divide the Caspian sea, with Iran demanding a larger portion for itself. This dispute even resulted in a short military standoff in 2001. Only the Turkish military support for Azerbaijan calmed the Iranians down then.
Perhaps these tensions were the reasons for the appearance of the Russian article. It is widely known that Azerbaijan is a close ally of the U.S. in the war on terrorism. In his congratulatory letter to President Aliyev in connection with the May 28 Independence Day, President Bush once again thanked Azerbaijan for its support in the war in Iraq. \"Azerbaijan was one of the first countries to join the coalition and to agree to send peacekeeping forces to Iraq...\" Bush said in the letter.
Meanwhile, U.S. officials are increasingly focusing on Iran. While in St. Petersburg, the U.S. National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice said \"There is a danger of nuclear proliferation from Iran\". Should the U.S. Administration decide to shift its focus from Iraq to Iran and demand from Iran to stop its nuclear programs, Azerbaijan will face a tough choice. In a possible U.S.-Iranian conflict, the factor of a 25 million-strong Azeri minority in Iran will also play a central role. The daily Echo reported on June 3 that political circles in Washington are actively engaged in a dialogue with Azeri dissidents in Iran, trying to unite the Iranian opposition. The Azeri minority in Iran, in its turn, might benefit from the situation by achieving greater autonomy from the Iranian regime.
The upcoming months will show whether the article in Nezavisimaya Gazeta was a political trick or not. At the same time it is clear that the U.S. is paying increasing attention to the Iranian question and in this matter the role of Azerbaijan and the Azeri minority in Iran will be crucial. Yet all the involved sides will have to be double careful not to destabilize the political balance in the region.
Book S. Frederick Starr and Svante E. Cornell,