Wednesday, 09 April 2003

THE AZERBAIJAN OPPOSITION PREPARES FOR PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

Published in Field Reports

By Gulnara Ismailova (4/9/2003 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Presidential elections will most likely take place on October, 15 or October 17, 2003, according to the chairman of the Central Election Commission, Mazahir Panahov. A final decision will be taken after Parliament finally passes the revised electoral code. Meanwhile, the opposition camp is gradually accelerating the discussion of a candidates.
Presidential elections will most likely take place on October, 15 or October 17, 2003, according to the chairman of the Central Election Commission, Mazahir Panahov. A final decision will be taken after Parliament finally passes the revised electoral code. Meanwhile, the opposition camp is gradually accelerating the discussion of a candidates. Potential candidates have not only begun an informal pre-election campaign, but are also actively trying to achieve maximal support among opposition parties. The often voiced assumptions that the next wave of activity of opposition forces will also lead to the aggravation of relations among leading opposition parties are beginning to be realized. Opposition leaders have started positioning to achieve the first place in the anti-governmental camp, and this struggle is now moving into the open.

On April 5, the Director of the Institute of the Peace and Democracy, Leyla Yunus, sent an open letter to Party leaders in which she called on them to push forward a single candidate for the forthcoming presidential elections. The letter argues that “this common candidate should not be the leader of any party. For this role it is reasonable to put forward somebody from among prominent representatives of the intelligentsia as the main leaders of opposition at the present stage are not ready to concede each other. The promotion of the common candidate should be supported by an obligation to create a coalition government of national unity. This government should made changes in the Constitution within 3 years, limiting presidential authority, carry out elections of judges, heads of regions and only after that carry out new presidential and parliamentary elections”.

Commenting on the proposal, the secretary general of the Democratic Party, Sardar Jalaloglu, stated that Azerbaijani society is capable of achieving democratic elections regardless, whether there will be one or several opposition candidates. The leader of the \"reformers\" wing of the Popular Front Party Ali Kerimli refrained from commenting. At the same time, he said that he is for the idea of a common candidate. “If a common candidate is put forward, the probability of an opposition victory increases considerably”. The secretary general of the Civic Solidarity Party, Sabir Hajiyev, considers it premature to discuss the idea of a common candidate. According to him, the main issue is the struggle for democratic conditions for the elections. “Adalat” party leader Ilyas Ismayilov noted that he supports the idea of a common candidate. Chairman of AMIP, Etibar Mamedov, stated that the concerns voiced in the proposal is normal, but that in his opinion, it is not right to consider the promotion of a common candidate the only possibility for a victory of democratic forces. According to the leader of “Musavat” party Isa Gambar, the proposal first of all takes into account the interests of the democratic forces, as well as all of society.

Summing up the reaction of leaders of the main opposition parties to this offer, one can come to the conclusion, that nobody wants to provide a clear \"yes\" or “no”. Such reaction is quite predictable. Maintaining the unity of opposition is very popular. Therefore nobody can openly speak against the highest level of association, i.e. promoting a consolidated candidate in the forthcoming presidential elections. Besides, none of the leaders is against the idea per se; the problem is that each of them sees himself in this role. For many objective and subjective reasons, the majority of leaders of the opposition cannot consider anyone else as the common candidate. Therefore, today, they are more engaged in the formation of more or less capable pre-election blocks around themselves.

“Musavat” leader Isa Gambar has formed the election block «Our Azerbaijan” on the base of the Democratic Congress. AMIP leader Etibar Mamedov will in the near future create a similar block. According to experts, it is possible that the PNFA, “Tereggi” and some other political forces will enter this block. It is also supposed that ex-president Ayaz Mutallibov can create a block on the basis of the alliance between the Union of the pro-Azerbaijan forces (UPF) and the Civic Solidarity Party. But recently the UPF leaders declared that Mutallibov cannot be a common candidate for this alliance.

Thus negotiations about any variants of closer cooperation will begin only after the formation of pre-election blocks between the main opposition leaders. In this case, any combinations are possible. But in this case, leading opposition forces will be unlikely to propose a common candidate. At best, the oppositional camp will form two to three strong competing pre-election blocks with their separate candidates.

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