U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Robert Blake visited Uzbekistan on August 16 as a part of a tour to several Central Asian countries to present the “New Silk Road” strategy. The presentation was originally planned to be held in Almaty, Kazakhstan. However, the top-ranking U.S. official suddenly changed his plans and moved the location for the round table on economic integration in Central Asia with business leaders to Tashkent. During the meeting the parties discussed a range of bilateral issues, including regional stability and security, democracy and human rights, counter-narcotics, education and cultural exchanges, and economic development and trade. The reasons for this sudden change of plans and the increased attention to Uzbekistan caused extensive speculation in local media about the reasons behind it and possible future developments in the bilateral relations between these two states.

The Kazakh newspaper Liter stated that the result of Blake’s visit will be an agreement on the deployment of a U.S. military base in Uzbekistan – with U.S. support, Uzbekistan may relax its relations with neighboring countries with whom it has often disputed over resources. The U.S., in turn, is interested in such a behavior on Uzbekistan’s part as it will increase regional stability and makes the country more dependent on the U.S.

The chief editor of the Natsionalnaya Oborona newspaper and the head of the Public Council of the Russian Ministry of Defense, Igor Korotchenko, stated that Uzbekistan is likely to agree to the deployment of a U.S. airbase, especially since Uzbekistan is seemingly distancing itself from Russia and President Karimov seeks to obtain U.S. support in order to preserve his regime.

Liter also noted that in case U.S. troops are deployed to Uzbekistan, China will be surrounded by U.S. military bases in all directions, adding the possibility that a U.S. presence in Uzbekistan would increase its leverage on Russia. The Ferghana Information Agency stipulates that closer relations between the U.S. and Uzbek governments should also be viewed in light of the increasing criticism of Uzbek authorities from human rights activists and opposition leaders who insist that Washington gets more involved in improving Uzbekistan’s human rights record.

Several analysts believe that the sudden change of Blake’s plans relates to Washington’s desire to influence the content of the newly adopted law “On approval of the Concept of Foreign Policy Activities of the Republic of Uzbekistan,” and specifically clause 3 of this legislation stipulating that “the Republic of Uzbekistan does not allow deployment of foreign bases and facilities on the territory of the country.” For the Pentagon, which seeks to make Uzbekistan an ally in light of neighboring Kyrgyzstan’s intentions to end the lease of the U.S. Manas Airbase before 2014, the above-mentioned clause would in effect endanger the possibility of a U.S. military presence in the Central Asian region.

It should be recalled that Uzbekistan recently withdrew from the Russia-led CSTO, and now may be the most appropriate timing for the U.S. to attempt to renew its presence in this country. Many analysts think, however, that Karimov will use this opportunity to extract as much as possible from this cooperation in exchange for amendments to the law. It is interesting to note that the law was adopted by the lower chamber of the Uzbek Parliament on August 5, and the upper chamber later postponed its adoption until September 2012.

In addition, Uzbekistan has recently adopted a law stating that all international truck traffic carrying cargos heavier than fifty tons will pay US$ 1 per kilometer for transfers using Uzbekistan’s roads and a fee of US$ 2 per kilometer if the axial load exceeds the norms. Obviously these charges will apply to very specific types of transport, like automobile platforms with tanks and armor. These types of loads will actually be transferred from Afghanistan through Uzbekistan during the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. Thus, some observers note that Uzbekistan prepares thoroughly to extract maximum benefits from this military transit.

Andrey Grozin, head of the Central Asia and Kazakhstan Department of the Institute of the CIS countries in Moscow, noted in an interview to the Amitel information agency that “after withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan, the U.S. will seek to retain some of its bases [in Central Asia], and Tashkent will use this for maximum extraction of preferences.” He added that the U.S. is at the moment applying a pragmatic approach in its relations with Uzbekistan. The approaching troop withdrawal from Afghanistan cannot be realized without Uzbekistan’s involvement due to the country’s geographic position in the region, hence active cooperation is needed.

These speculations were seemingly confirmed by Blake, who highlighted the leading role of Uzbekistan in the implementation of a number of regional projects and especially emphasized the southward railroad to Mazar-i-Sharif, built in collaboration with the Asian Development Bank (ADB). He noted that this is the major railroad through Central Asia providing transit of equipment and materials to the U.S. troops in Afghanistan. In light of recent developments and the increased interest in closer cooperation from both sides, the likelihood of a future U.S. military presence in Uzbekistan is seemingly increasing.