On March 14, Russia began transferring troops from Chechnya to the unstable highland- and forest districts in Central Dagestan. This move was effectuated after a series of violent events during the transition period between winter and spring had demonstrated that the aforementioned regions will very likely continue to be the core of the North Caucasus insurgency.

Between February 13 and 17, some of the heaviest fighting seen in the North Caucasus in recent years took place in the forests surrounding the administrative border between Chechnya and Dagestan. After three members of the Chechen security forces were killed in an encounter with a group of insurgents in southeastern Chechnya, officers from different law enforcement agencies followed the rebels across the border into the Khasavyurtsky and Kazbeksky districts in the western part of central Dagestan. Unfavorable terrain and harsh weather conditions prevented the pursuing party from using their armored vehicles and, according to reports, between 13 and 21 officers from different branches of the security forces were killed during the five-day operation. Information regarding the number of insurgents involved in the fighting appears to be even more unreliable. According to a Dagestani investigation of the events, six rebels were killed in a mortar attack that ended the pursuit on February 17.

Another part of central Dagestan that has witnessed an upsurge in violence in recent weeks is the highlands and forest areas in the Karabudakhkentsky district. The woods in that district constitute the eastern portion of a forest belt stretching from southern Chechnya, across the border regions between the two republics and into the central areas of Dagestan. Over the last few years, these mountainous woodlands have been the most active area of the North Caucasian insurgency. As a case in point, Ibrahimhalil Daudov, who was the head of the Caucasus Emirate’s Dagestani front, was killed in these parts of the republic last month. He was lodging in the village of Gurbuki with his 21-year old son and the 23-year old leader of the Kapiysk wing of Dagestan’s rebel movement, Zaur Zagidov, when the house they were staying in was surrounded by Dagestani security forces. While Daudov’s son and Zagidov, as well as two other members of the armed underground, were killed in an assault on the building on February 11, Daudov managed to escape from the scene. However, he later died from injuries he sustained during the attack and on February 14, his dead body was found on the banks of the Gubden-Ozen River about two kilometers from the village. Daudov, who only joined the insurgents four years ago, succeeded Israpil Validzhanov, who was killed at a checkpoint not very far from where Daudov died, in April 2011. He was the seventh Emir of Dagestan’s Shariat Jamaat to be killed since 2006 and his death will most likely have no more than a marginal effect on the overall situation in Dagestan.

On March 6, roughly three weeks after the death of Daudov and his companions, a female suicide bomber detonated an explosive device outside a police checkpoint in the village of Karabudakhkent, about five kilometers north of Gurbuki. This was the first suicide attack of the year in Dagestan, which suffered seven similar attacks in 2011. Five police officers were killed in the attack and two were wounded. The identity of the perpetrator is yet to be verified through DNA testing, but investigators stated that she was the widow of Zaur Zagidov.

Three days later, on March 9, a Mi-8 military helicopter was severely damaged and forced to make an emergency landing after being hit by small arms fire in the same area. Shortly thereafter, the security forces launched a special operation in the region and between March 14 and 17, reports about kilometer-long convoys of armored personnel carriers and military vehicles entering Dagestan began to appear in the local media. For instance, the Dagestani weekly Chernovik said that a source at the Chechen Ministry of Interior Affairs had told them that Chechnya was transferring 25,000 troops into the Karabudakhkentsky district. These claims have spawned wild speculations and on March 18, the Russian Ministry of Interior Affairs officially stated they were just sending a temporary contingent of interior troops from the Khankala army base in Grozny to the more unstable regions in Dagestan. The Secretary of Dagestan’s Security Council, Magomed Baachilov, has since said that no more than 1,000 troops have been deployed to the republic. According to him, there are 60,000 troops stationed in Chechnya but only 20,000 in the larger and more troubled Dagestan, at the moment. He also announced that the purpose of the transfer is to form new temporary police units in unstable municipalities and mentioned the Karabudakhkentsky- and the Kizilyurtsky districts.