For the first time in its history, Azerbaijan has become a member of the UN Security Council (UNSC) after winning the final vacancy on the 15-member body. Analysts speculate on how Baku will use this opportunity to settle the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh which remains unsolved after over 20 years. Azerbaijan claimed the non-permanent seat, awarded to an Eastern European country, on the 17th round of balloting after it scored 155 votes from UN member states in the General Assembly – well above the required two-third majority of states present and voting. The country’s victory occurred after Slovenia withdrew its bid at the end of the 16th round. In that round Azerbaijan had obtained 116 votes to Slovenia’s 77. A representative of Slovenia told the General Assembly that while his country believed it would be a good fit for the Council, it was withdrawing its candidacy as the will of the Assembly was clear.

Azerbaijan, which will hold the seat in 2012-13, succeeds Bosnia and Herzegovina. Guatemala, Morocco, Pakistan and Togo filled four other non-permanent seats for the next two years. All non-permanent seats are allocated according to a geographical formula. The five new members will join Colombia, Germany, India, Portugal and South Africa, whose terms end on December 31, 2012, and the five permanent Council members, which each wield the power of veto – China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the U.S.

Immediately after the news from New York, President Ilham Aliyev made a public statement where he characterized the victory as “a landmark and historic event in the life of the country,” that marks the 20th anniversary of independence after collapse of the Soviet Union. “This is a very symbolic event. It shows that during 20 years Azerbaijan has demonstrated itself as an independent state, as a glorious country in the world … This victory is the victory of the Azerbaijani state, the triumph of our policy.” The President expressed gratitude to all countries that voted for Azerbaijan’s candidacy and stressed that Azerbaijan in this organization would “serve the values of the organization; peace, security, democracy and justice.”

Although Baku considers this event as a victory of Baku’s diplomacy, it seems that many European countries did not want to see Azerbaijan in the Security Council. A Western diplomat told Turan news agency that this was due to the uncertain political course of Baku and violations of democratic norms and human rights in the country. In addition, he noted that the West cannot predict how Azerbaijan will act during discussions of the Palestinian case in the UNSC. Following the voting in New York, Azerbaijan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Elmar Mammadyarov expressed hope that “the Palestinian issue will be solved before the country will take a seat in the Security Council next year.” At the same time, he noted that Azerbaijan will consult with the Organization of Islamic Conference on such issues.  

On October 31, the EU congratulated Azerbaijan on the election and welcomed its commitments to UN values and principles of peace and democracy. The EU Delegation declared its readiness to assist Azerbaijan in meeting the challenges and opportunities related to the country’s new status, and expressed hopes for expanded cooperation and close dialogue on all international issues. The U.S., which according to Deputy Secretary of State William Burns considers Azerbaijan “an important and long-term partner for the U.S.” also welcomed country’s election. 

Michael Gunter, a U.S. political analyst on security issues in the Middle East and Eurasia, believes Azerbaijan could be an effective intermediary between the U.S. and the Islamic world, and that the U.S. is eager to cooperate with a secular Muslim-majority state such as Azerbaijan on regulating the situation in the Middle East after the Arab Spring, resolving the crisis in Turkish-Israeli relations, and on finding a solution to the problem of Iran.

To the Azerbaijani public, the main issue is how the country will be able to use its membership in the UNSC for resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. To date, the UN has passed four resolutions on the conflict demanding the withdrawal of Armenian troops from the occupied territories, but none has been implemented.

Ali Hasanov, Head of the Social and Political Department of the Azerbaijani Presidential Administration stated that “Azerbaijan is first of all going to put the question of its violated territorial integrity on the agenda of the UN Security Council.” Azerbaijan’s Foreign Minister said the introduction of any initiative requires the preliminary support of the five permanent members of the council, three of which are co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group. “We have not discussed this issue with the permanent members yet, but we will,” Mamedyarov said.

Alexandr Krilov, a Russian analyst on international politics, said that even if Azerbaijan would not be able to use the UNSC as a direct lever for impacting the resolution of the Armenian-Azerbaijani dispute, the tribune of the UNSC will provide new opportunities for Baku to “carry on the diplomatic and information war against Armenia.” Due to Armenia’s passivity, “Azerbaijan has carried out this war over recent years and reached great achievements. Many Azerbaijani books translated in various languages are distributed in international organizations, which present Armenia as an aggressor and occupant,” Krilov told the Armenian news agency. “Thus, Azerbaijan’s membership in the Security Council will open new opportunities for diplomatic attack against Armenia.”