The return of Armenia’s second President Robert Kocharyan to national politics is unlikely to affect the parliamentary elections in May 2012, since Kocharyan is officially a non-partisan and does not enjoy the support of any political party. However, the question of Kocharyan’s potential return to politics has attracted significant attention in the Armenian press in the context of pre-election developments in Russia. When the decision that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will most likely replace Dmitry Medvedev as Russian President was announced on September 24, many Armenian media outlets argued that a similar arrangement is possible in Armenia, due to the country’s close ties with Russia. The argument is largely based on the view that Putin would prefer Kocharyan as Armenian president over the incumbent Serzh Sargsyan, who will run for his second term in 2013.

The discussion was fueled by an interview given by Kocharyan, in itself a rare event, in which he acknowledged the possibility of his return to “big politics.” This puts Sargsyan in a difficult position as his apparently friendly relations with Kocharyan prevents him from openly denouncing any political plans of the former president. For this reason, Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan was selected for the task of expressing the ruling Republican Party of Armenia’s (RPA) position on the possible return of Kocharyan. Whereas Serzh Sargsyan is the leader of that party, Tigran Sargsyan is a member of its Board. The Prime Minister told reporters on October 5 that his party will not return to its previous support for Kocharyan, but will now instead support its leader, Sargsyan. However, the message was delivered indirectly and in a very polite manner, ostensibly in an effort to avoid burning any bridges.

First of all, Tigran Sargsyan said that former Presidents never quit “big politics” implying that Kocharyan, who is now a board member of a large Russian company, has continuously participated in political machinations in Armenia. The Prime Minister went on to say that Sargsyan and Kocharyan have always been close friends and comrades in arms, and will remain so in the future. In the early 1990s, both men took active part in the war over Nagorno-Karabakh and were among the leaders of the region’s Armenian forces before moving to Yerevan.

Referring to Sargsyan’s service in different ministries 1998-2008 before becoming Prime Minister in 2007, Tigran Sargsyan expressed his confidence that “Robert Kocharyan will not become a competitor to Serzh Sargsyan. Just like Sargsyan supported him during ten years of presidency, Kocharyan will support Sargsyan during ten years.” This clearly implies that Sargsyan intends to remain in office until the end of his second term in 2018, and that the RPA will support him.

Tigran Sargsyan made another statement, ruling out the possibility of Kocharyan’s return with the help of another party of the ruling three-party coalition, the Bargavach Hayastan (Prosperous Armenia) party. The party was created in 2006, allegedly on Kocharyan’s initiative and is according to rumors prepared to quit the coalition and support Kocharyan, in spite of the agreement signed in February 2011 that they will not leave the coalition and will support Sargsyan in the 2013 elections. On October 5, Tigran Sargsyan said that the ruling coalition, which is Sargsyan’s political base, “has enough political will and strength to secure the normal development of the country and carry out the tasks stipulated by the coalition agreement.” Tigran Sargsyan was more decisive on October 26, stating that his party was the strongest political force in Armenia and that everyone had to cooperate with it.

The Prime Minister conveyed two important messages in his statements. First, that his party, the RPA, does not support the idea of Kocharyan’s return to politics, at least before 2018. Second, that Kocharyan does not have a political power base to participate in the parliamentary elections next year. His potential for creating such a base through Bargavach Hayastan is in practice non-existent, since the party is a member of the ruling coalition and will opt for supporting Sargsyan, according to the Prime Minister. The fact that this statement was made by Tigran Sargsyan, a person largely known so far as an economist, serving as Central Bank Chairman 1998-2008, can hold further implications for Armenian politics. These statements demonstrated that he has obtained a more forthcoming political role and is likely to play a major role in the 2012 and 2013 elections.