On October 28, Tajik president Emomali Rakhmon confirmed Tajikistan’s resolve to complete the massive Rogun hydroelectric power station (HEPS), suggesting that the construction of the power plant was “not only a matter of survival [for Tajikistan] but also one of ensuring the country’s energy independence.” Addressing a gathering at the power plant’s construction site, the Tajik leader said nearly US$ 150 million was earmarked for the Rogun project in the country’s 2010 state budget, which is a 22 percent increase from the US$ 120 million during this year. President Rakhmon also suggested that the partial blocking of the Vakhsh River to fill up the Rogun reservoir will begin early next year, and the first unit of the power station will be commissioned in three to four years.

Tajikistan’s plans to complete the giant Soviet-planned Rogun HEPS project have long been a source of serious tensions with downstream countries, notably Uzbekistan. Uzbek authorities fear that in order to fill up the Rogun reservoir, Tajikistan will begin withdrawing significantly larger volumes of water from the Vakhsh River, a major tributary of the Amu Darya River which is heavily used to irrigate Uzbek cotton fields. With water shortages already affecting agriculture in the region, there are concerns that increased water withdrawals by Tajikistan will put Uzbek cotton production at serious risk. Uzbek authorities are also concerned that the massive Rogun dam located in an area of high seismic activity would pose a significant threat to the security of the entire region.

Dushanbe has persistently attempted to address the downstream countries’ concerns and convince them to support rather than fear the construction of the dam. Speaking on October 28, the Tajik President said “Tajikistan will never build reservoirs and power plants to the detriment of its neighbors or that to limit water supply to them.” Many regional and international experts agree that the completed Rogun dam would perform the function of a multi-year water flow regulator, thus helping minimize the risks of disastrous fluctuations in water flow levels in Central Asia. Tajik specialists also argue that the completion of the dam would help improve water supply to over 4.5 million hectares of land, mostly in downstream countries.

Despite reassurances from Dushanbe, it is very unlikely that Uzbekistan would change its stance on the Rogun power station because of political and security considerations. Tashkent opposes Dushanbe’s hydroelectric power development projects because an enhanced ability to harness its water reserves would potentially give Tajikistan considerable negotiating leverage in its dealings with Uzbekistan. Tajik political analyst Holmamad Samiev argues that Uzbek authorities frequently cut natural gas or electricity supplies to Tajikistan as a means of exerting pressure on Dushanbe. According to the analyst, Tashkent fears that Tajik authorities would in a similar fashion use the giant Rogun dam to control the flow of water to Uzbekistan.

So far Tashkent has successfully prevented Tajikistan from attracting foreign investments to finance the US$3.2 billion Rogun HEPS project. Authorities in Dushanbe have accused Uzbekistan of exerting pressure on the Russian aluminum giant Rusal which had not built the power station despite an agreement signed to that effect in 2005. Tajikistan’s efforts to create an international consortium to build the Rogun power station have been equally unsuccessful in the face of fierce opposition from Uzbekistan. Therefore, Dushanbe has resorted to using state funds to finance the construction while other crucial budget sectors, notably the social sector, remain severely underfunded.

Tajikistan will most probably have little other option but to continue focusing its efforts on completing the Rogun power station. Uzbekistan, which has long acted as a transit point for electricity supplies between energy-rich Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan and power-starved Tajikistan, announced In October that it would not allow for power transits to Tajikistan this winter. Moreover, Uzbek energy officials suggested that Uzbekistan would withdraw from the Central Asian unified power grid, citing “misappropriation” of electricity from the unified grid by Tajikistan as the primary reason for the decision. Uzbekistan’s withdrawal from the regional power grid would put an end to all power transit schemes to Tajikistan, thus leaving the country exposed to unavoidable power rationing and complete blackouts in the winter. In such a situation, the completion of the Rogun dam would become a matter of necessity rather than choice for Tajikistan.