Wednesday, 28 October 2009

KRISHNA’S VISIT TO UZBEKISTAN: THE MAKINGS OF INDIA’S CENTRAL ASIA POLICY

Published in Field Reports

By Roman Muzalevsky (10/28/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The October 20-22 visit of Indian External Affairs Minister Somanahalli Krishna to Russia and the October 27 trilateral meeting of Russia, India, and China in Bangalore overshadowed the minister’s meeting with his Uzbek counterpart and President Islam Karimov in Tashkent on October 22-23. The meeting was largely unnoticed, drawing only short and vague statements from the respective foreign ministries and the press. So has India’s policy in Central Asia that seeks to combat terrorism and drug trafficking, secure export markets, promote energy transit and security, and become an active player in a region threatened by developments in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

The October 20-22 visit of Indian External Affairs Minister Somanahalli Krishna to Russia and the October 27 trilateral meeting of Russia, India, and China in Bangalore overshadowed the minister’s meeting with his Uzbek counterpart and President Islam Karimov in Tashkent on October 22-23. The meeting was largely unnoticed, drawing only short and vague statements from the respective foreign ministries and the press. So has India’s policy in Central Asia that seeks to combat terrorism and drug trafficking, secure export markets, promote energy transit and security, and become an active player in a region threatened by developments in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In this light, the intensified Indian-Central Asian relations, and particularly the Indian-Uzbek cooperation, is testimony to Delhi’s long-held but still poorly enforced view of the need to become a more influential actor in Eurasian affairs.

Krishna visited Uzbekistan on October 22-23 after his three-day trip to Russia, where he discussed ways of boosting economic ties between Russia and India. Mr. Krishna met with his Uzbek counterpart Vladimir Norov and Uzbek President Islam Karimov at the Oksaroy Residence in Tashkent. The minister also paid his respects at the Lal Bahadur Shastri Memorial and visited the India Centre at the Al-Biruni Institute of Oriental Studies. The meeting appears to be part of a series of earlier high-level visits by Indian President Praibha Patil to Tajikistan and Minister Krishna to Turkmenistan in September, underscoring the growing importance of Central Asia for India’s interests.

In his interview to Uzbek TV on 23 October, Krishna underlined that that the main purpose of the visit was to boost relations between India and Uzbekistan, including in the field of culture and education. This should come as no surprise given India’s pre-colonial cultural influence in Central Asia and its current aspirations to reclaim its bygone cultural clout. Uzbek President Karimov, in turn, emphasized: “The relations between Uzbekistan and India are consistently developing. They are based on the historical, cultural and spiritual closeness of peoples of the two countries.” The statement of the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, while not specifying the detailed nature of the meeting, stated that the two sides discussed issues of bilateral, regional and global importance.

Indian experts assert that cooperation in the energy sphere was most likely on top of the agenda. Uzbekistan possesses vast oil, gas, and uranium reserves and is interested in diversifying its export routes. India, on the other hand, seeks to meet its growing energy needs. Moreover, while Russia, China, the EU and the U.S. have actively pursued energy transit opportunities in Eurasia, India has been lagging behind and, most likely, wants to catch up. China already reaps the benefits of the construction of the Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-China gas pipeline, while the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline remains on paper. The complexity of the inter-state relations, especially between India and Pakistan, seriously undermine a project that has the potential to transform Eurasia.

Trade is also high on the agenda in Uzbek-Indian relations. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, as of today the two countries have signed more than 60 agreements in various fields, including in construction, pharmaceuticals, the IT sector, the retail industry, mining and energy. Uzbekistan, with a population of about 28 million people, is a good market for India’s exports. According to the Government of India, the trade turnover with Uzbekistan reached US$56 million between 2007 and 2008, with Indian exports constituting US$40 million. The State Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan reports that 31 enterprises with the participation of Indian investors currently operate in Uzbekistan.

The trade and energy issues between the two countries should also be viewed in the context of regional strategic cooperation and competition among various powers, including on a global scale. A statement of the Uzbek Foreign Ministry released after the meeting read “Uzbekistan and India support each other on the international arena and are developing cooperation in the framework of such regional and international organizations as the UN and the SCO.” India has long looked to Central Asia for support in its aspirations to obtain permanent membership in the UN Security Council, hinder Pakistani influence in the region, and get closer to the SCO to manage China’s rise, all of which is treated cautiously by China.

However, the threat of terrorism and Islamic fundamentalism, as well as the instability in Afghanistan and Pakistan, certainly provide room for strategic cooperation between India and China, something the former wants to streamline with the Central Asian SCO member states, especially with Uzbekistan, as well. The latter, in turn, is interested in a strong partnership with India to balance the interests of Russia, the U.S. and China, as well as to combat regional terrorism, fundamentalism, and narcotics trafficking.

Krishna’s visit to Uzbekistan and the current India-Central Asia relations point to revitalized Indian policies in the region. Uzbekistan and India meet eye to eye on many regional issues, including energy transit and security, developments in Afghanistan and Pakistan, terrorism and extremism. Most importantly, both seem to realize that a more active engagement between the two will serve their interests of balancing foreign pressures in what was once a common space of civilization. The degree of their success will increasingly depend on the larger context of the intra-regional relations that simultaneously impede and promote India’s advance into Central Asia and Uzbekistan’s search for a more independent foreign policy.
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