On August 22, Parliamentary Speaker Hovik Abrahamyan summoned the members of the ad hoc inquiry committee for the March 2008 post-electoral violence. He reminded them that September 15 is the deadline for the committee's final report on the circumstances around the clashes between opposition protesters and security forces in the aftermath of the contested presidential election in February 2008. While stressing that Armenia is primarily accountable to its own public, the Speaker noted the importance of meeting the expectations of impartiality and objectivity demanded by the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE).

The Monitoring Committee of PACE, which has been heavily engaged in handling the post-election political crisis by carrying out regular fact-finding missions and adopting four resolutions on the matter, will meet again on September 9 in Paris. The performance of democratic institutions in Armenia is on the agenda, and the head of the Armenian delegation to PACE, Davit Harutiunyan of  the ruling Republican party, will bring his peers up to date on recent developments.

However, neither forces in the government nor the opposition camps believe that the Assembly will take any drastic action, after its last resolution on Armenia welcomed the amnesty enacted by the Parliament on June 19, 2009. The amnesty has so far resulted in the release of some 30 opposition activists, and announced the return to regular monitoring mode without special focus on the post-election crisis.

The success of Armenian policies toward the CoE for benchmarking human rights and the rule of law in the country largely rested on two arguments advanced by the Armenian authorities. First, the authorities effectively demanded respect for the state’s sovereignty, by arguing that hasty interventions of the executive branch to release detainees could undermine state institutions responsible for such issues under Armenian law. Second, options such as amnesty could only be considered after the completion of judicial proceedings, lest the integrity of the judicial system risked being compromised.

The authorities’ negotiations with the CoE allowed an unhindered pursuit of stronger ties with the EU. In spite of heavy international criticism and a domestic expectation of sanctions, Armenia was included in the EU’s Eastern Partnership launched in May. Also, the Progress Report on the Implementation of the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) by Armenia in 2008 largely noted progress, providing only a mild assessment of the crisis. The report issued in April 2009, however, noted “the consequences of the still persisting internal crisis,” which the EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus, Peter Semneby, sought to resolve earlier in February 2009 through unsuccessful shuttle diplomacy between the authorities and the Armenian National Congress (ANC).

During this period, the European Commission further proceeded with its plans for technical assistance to the Armenian government. In March, a group of high-level EU Advisers was deployed to work with the government to support the implementation of the ENP Action Plan, leaving little room for doubt among opposition supporters about the EU’s preferences. Among other activities, the EU advisors are expected to provide assistance and build capacity for strengthening democratic structures, respect for human rights and the rule of law, including judiciary reform. Announcing the deployment of the group, the EU Commissioner for External Relations and the European Neighbourhood Policy, Benita Ferrero-Waldner, welcomed Armenia’s efforts and achievements in 2008 and encouraged further steps to accelerate the process: “The EU Advisory Experts Group established at the core of the Armenian administration is proof of Armenia’s desire to step up reform efforts and bring Armenia closer to EU norms and standards”.

Moreover, the European Commission continued its financial support for reforms, programming assistance for a total amount of €24 million under the European Neighborhood Partnership Instrument (ENPI). A feasibility study on a possible future EU-Armenia free trade area (FTA) carried out in 2008 further concluded that Armenia has made some progress in this direction. Subsequently, the European Commission undertook a follow-up mission in February 2009 to map the process of future negotiations. And finally, in the framework of joint CoE-EU programs, the two organizations announced a three year undertaking, starting in September, to enhance the capacity of the judiciary and improve access to justice in Armenia.

The absence of sanctions from European institutions have puzzled and embittered the opposition and large segments of civil society who have grown increasingly prone to explain this attitude with the higher regional stakes, including the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process and the rapprochement with Turkey. While these speculations were brushed aside by the CoE Commissioner for Human Rights, Thomas Hammarberg, during his visit in November 2008, the lingering distrust continues to be a prevailing mood among opposition supporters and has been figuring prominently at opposition rallies in the speeches of the ANC leader Levon Ter-Petrosyan.

Armenia’s unaffected relations with the EU, and the June 2009 PACE decision to shift focus from the March events, restoring its regular monitoring routine on a broader range of issues, signalled that European institutions consider the crisis largely resolved and expect little further action, despite the ANC’s claims to galvanize the political climate in the coming fall. But it also resulted in a realization by the ANC leadership of the need to change its policies toward European institutions. The first step in this direction was taken through an unprecedented decision by the ANC in January to appoint representatives to lobby opposition interests at PACE. While somehow belated, the apparent decision to improve communication with European institutions could bring a better understanding of their role with regard to member states and partner countries, and help shape the opposition’s policies and expectations accordingly.