Preparations for the upcoming Presidential elections in Kyrgyzstan resemble any other in Central Asia. The incumbent President Kurmanbek Bakiyev has shown no sign of willingness to give up office, while the opposition is not able to create a viable challenge to the regime.

To date, 17 candidates have registered to run for president, with most of them seeing the presidential bid as an advancement of their own positions in local, as opposed to national, constituencies. The president, in turn, has visibly boosted his activity by coming up with a populist agenda for economic development and promising to increase pensions. 

For a brief period, the Kyrgyz opposition parties tried to consolidate and choose one joint candidate. The long-time opposition leader Omurbek Tekebayev sacrificed his presidential ambition in favor of other candidates. After weeks of negotiations, Kyrgyz opposition movements nominated the leader of the Social Democratic Party, Almazabek Atambayev, as their candidate. Another opposition leader and former Defense Minister, Ismail Isakov, announced his candidacy in April, but withdrew this week in favor of Atambayev and the unity of opposition movements.

However, a few days ago yet another opposition candidate and leader of the Ak Shumkar party, Temir Sariyev, registered to run for president. Sariyev’s wish to compete along with his fellow opposition leaders has weakened the ability of the opposition movements to challenge Bakiyev. It also shows that the opposition leaders are more concerned with their political ambitions of becoming widely known in the country, than with defeating the current regime.

Sariyev’s recent move stirred discontent among other opposition leaders. Following Tekebayev’s decision to give up his candidacy in favor of the larger opposition movement, his fellow colleagues cheered the opportunity to challenge Bakiyev by selecting a candidate possessing both political power and a strong financial base. Both Atambayev and Sariyev meet these criteria. But neither of them enjoys popularity among the masses to an extent comparable to Tekebayev.

A presidential candidate must be wealthy enough to organize mass rallies before and after the elections. Since most opposition leaders are convinced that the Central Elections Commission will falsify the elections, opposition movements are preparing to stage demonstrations. A few leaders have admitted that violent confrontation between the government and opposition is likely, should Bakiyev suppress the demonstrations.

In the meantime, Bakiyev has sought to secure support from Russia as well as tried to maintain stable relations with the United States. While accepting over US$2 billion in loans from the Kremlin and promising to expel the U.S. airbase from Bishkek, Bakiyev seems ambivalent to ousting the U.S. base. While the president and parliament approved August 18 as the end date for the U.S. presence, the airbase still seems to function as normal, while the U.S. is allocating more financial aid to Kyrgyzstan.

Bakiyev announced early elections with the aim of being re-elected before relations with Russia and the U.S. become too intricate. The loyal parliament and government will support Bakiyev’s bid. Bakiyev damaged his popularity during the first year of his presidency, as he alienated his former supporters and suppressed NGOs and mass media in the country. 

If elected, the opposition promises to change the constitution and reduce the president’s powers. Yet, the majority of current opposition leaders have backgrounds similar to Bakiyev’s. While all are former members of communist party, few genuinely understand – and can employ – democratic values in their policies. So far none of the leaders in Kyrgyzstan have gone beyond declaring that the constitution should change and parliament become more efficient. Often leaders mix ethno-centric ideas with their campaigns for democracy, calling “the Kyrgyz” to become a prouder nation. Issues of civil rights, freedom of the media or programs for economic development are rarely mentioned in their agendas. The promise to fight the corruption of Bakiyev regime remains the major slogan for opposition leaders.

In effect, the difference between the president and his contenders is insignificant. As one political observer notes, “whoever comes to power from the current opposition candidates will be only one step ahead of Bakiyev”.

Bakiyev came to power in March 2005 as a result of mass protests organized by various opposition movements. Then, leaders of the opposition against former president Askar Akayev were equally divided and consolidated only weeks prior to elections.