In the first weeks of May, Tajikistan suffered from continuous heavy rainfalls. The cotton sector, which was already on the brink of ruin due to the financial crisis and the huge debts of cotton farms, is threatened by a natural disaster. Experts claim that due to the continuous heavy rainfalls, there is a risk that cotton crops will not even start growing. Furthermore, farmers cannot reseed the crops due to continuous rain.

According to the State Committee on emergency management and civil defense, the total financial loss caused by the natural disasters in April-May is more than US$ 1 million. Heavy rainfalls also caused mudslides, which wiped out more than 100 households, roads, transmission facilities and bridges in different districts of the country with 19 human deaths including 6 children. On 7 May, a mudslide covered the construction site of the Rogun hydro power station, burying two workers alive.

The country’s capital, Dushanbe, was also heavily affected by the natural disaster. A mudflow in Dushanbe covered the streets with mud and paralyzed the operation of public transport. After the heavy rains, Dushanbe became a Venice, but instead of canals the streets were filled with muddy water. Even the main avenue of the city, Rudaki Avenue, where the Parliament, the President’s Residence, and ministries are located, was covered with mud. This was not the end of the hardships, however. Over the next few days, the city suffered from heavy hail of huge size. 

The Ministry of Agriculture is concerned over the natural disaster’s consequences for the agricultural sector, particularly cotton crops. According to the Ministry’s experts, the whole sowing season is under threat. The most affected sector is cotton, where 40,000 of the sowed hectares need to be reseeded. But even if farmers manage to reseed the cotton, the risk of crop setback remains. Most of the country’s southern districts cannot even start sowing, which is usually done by the end of May. Heavy rainfalls also destroyed huge already sowed areas of crops, potatoes and orchards. The Government decided to establish ‘emergency headquarters’ with special working groups to monitor the consequences of the disaster at the local level. The Ministry’s experts are counting the losses while none of the officials can explain how they are going to solve the problem and help the affected farms.

Independent experts claim that this natural calamity will worsen the situation in the agricultural sector, which is already suffering from the financial crisis and mismanagement. According to Farruh Abduvasiev, a senior expert with the Institute of Economic Research, such unusual precipitation can negatively impact the food security of the country. “Although it is almost impossible to avert such negative consequences, it is possible to predict such situations and to arrange measures for softening the consequences for the agriculture sector,” he continues.

While the Government is trying to calculate losses, ordinary farmers are desperate. Rukiya Rahimova, who heads a small farm in the Yavan district, says “Recently, I do not even want to open my eyes so I do not see the rain”. Her small farm has already lost about US$2,500 from the rainfalls, while the total return from the last year was about US$3,000. “We have been suffering from heavy rains for almost one month. This is the height of the sowing season, but we cannot do anything, seeds just decay in the ground!”

Isroil, who is the bookkeeper, and at the same time worker, tractor driver and guard of another farm in the Yavan district, claims that “last year we had a good crop, but the profit was just $3,000. This profit is for 23 households, because our farm consists of 23 shareholders”. He continues, “we were lucky last year, most other farms had even less profit. But I cannot even imagine what to expect this year after such rains”. Isroil doubts that his farm will manage to survive this year.

In sum, the continuous heavy rainfalls caused significant losses for the country, particularly for the cotton sector. The Government is more concerned with fulfilling the cotton harvest “plan” and laments that only 70 percent of the irrigable land “planned” for cotton production is currently being exploited. Experts claim that the natural disaster just worsens the situation of the system, which needs long-term serious reforms. Furthermore, experts warn that continuous problems in the agricultural sector put farmers on the brink of ruin and threaten the country’s food security at the time of financial crisis.