Wednesday, 29 October 2008

ELECTIONS IN AZERBAIJAN CONSTITUTE STEP FORWARD, BUT INTERNATIONAL REACTIONS REMAIN AMBIGUOUS

Published in Field Reports

By Alman Mir Ismail (10/29/2008 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Presidential elections in Azerbaijan, which took place on October 15, were the calmest and most properly organized in the country’s history. In spite of a tough neighborhood, geopolitical rivalry over its natural resources and a history of a tense election environment, Azerbaijan managed to conduct the latest race with maintained stability and internal order.

Presidential elections in Azerbaijan, which took place on October 15, were the calmest and most properly organized in the country’s history. In spite of a tough neighborhood, geopolitical rivalry over its natural resources and a history of a tense election environment, Azerbaijan managed to conduct the latest race with maintained stability and internal order.

The elections were conducted with several procedural improvements in place: voters could verify their names in the voter lists online, thus effectively eradicating the problem of missing names in the lists. Web cameras were installed in 10% of all polling stations to make sure that election commission members followed rules and norms, as prescribed by law. Previous technical improvements, such as inking fingers to avoid multiple voting and usage of transparent boxes were also maintained. More importantly, all seven running candidates were provided live airtime on Public TV to address the voters and debate issues of national importance.

Incumbent President Ilham Aliyev received the overwhelming majority of votes. According to the Central Election Commission, 89% of the voters gave their votes to Aliyev. This came as no surprise. The country’s rapid economic development, heavy investments in public infrastructure and a balanced foreign policy between the West, Russia and the Islamic world satisfy the demands of people, which have lived through the terrible years of instability and chaos in the 1990s. The six other candidates, representing a new wave of opposition parties, gathered a small amount of votes but campaigned extensively both in Baku and the regions of the country. The actual campaign process was characterized by them as normal, since no major obstacles were raised by local executive officials against organizing town hall meetings, putting up posters and traveling to rural areas.

Local specialists argued that a smooth election campaign was in the interest of the authorities, since they wanted to prove to the international community that the country is indeed on the right path towards democracy and that all previous criticism of its elections was taken into consideration. Besides, in the regional context, Azerbaijani officials hoped that free and fair elections would give the country a clear advantage over Armenia, where turmoil in connection with the Presidential elections resulted in 8 deaths and several hundred wounded.

Indeed the clearly improved election process did receive some positive remarks from the international observers.  Observers from the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) and the European Parliament (EP) concluded in a joint statement right after elections that Azerbaijan marked considerable progress. Election observers used wordings like: “The election was conducted in a peaceful manner”, “There were notable improvements in the conduct of this election … the voting day can be generally viewed positively and described as marking considerable progress”, “According to our observations on election day, the elections were well prepared and largely carried out smoothly”, “The authorities made efforts to create more equitable conditions for candidates, and the election was organized in an overall efficient manner”.

Carl Bildt, Swedish Minister of Foreign Affairs and Chairman of the Council of Europe's Committee of Ministers, stated that “we welcome the progress marked in the course of the election”. Javier Solana, High EU Representative on Foreign policy and Security, said that the “election was held calmly, without any violations of the law and was well organized, more fair conditions were provided to the candidates from the opposition”. Similarly, Benita Ferrero-Waldner, High Commissioner of the EU's European Commission for Foreign Relations and European Neighborhood Policy, welcomed the election progress noted by the OSCE, and has positively appreciated the more favorable conditions for oppositional candidates to campaign.

However, international observers have also noted shortcomings, related to the “lack of robust competition and vibrant political discourse facilitated by the media”. Major opposition parties boycotted the elections, but many considered this an attempt to save face rather than subjecting themselves to a clear defeat by Aliyev. The conclusion was that elections “did not meet all of the country's international commitments.” Especially critical was the statement by EU Presidency, distributed by French embassy in Baku.

Azerbaijani officials categorically disagreed with these comments. Some of them expressed deep frustration with the international observers, whom they accused of double standards. “How is it possible that the EU gives such a soft assessment of Armenia’s elections, despite so much violence there and gives such a harsh statement after Azerbaijan’s elections?” asked one government official, who preferred to stay anonymous. Both the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Central Election Commission issued statements, expressing their surprise and disappointment with the evaluation of the EU. "For unknown reasons, the statement disseminated by the Presidency of the European Union in its essence overturns the stand, on the one hand, of many thousands of observers who kept watching the presidential election, and, on the other hand, of the high-ranking EU officials," the statement concluded.

The majority of Azerbaijani government officials conclude that constant criticism of the country’s elections emanates from a Western interest in using democracy as a tool for foreign policy pressure. Others believe that the Armenian lobby in key Western capitals such as Paris, Brussels and Washington play a role in such statements. In any case, this addition to the perception of double standards in the West comes at a particularly sensitive time, following the loss of Western prestige after the war in Georgia. Voices advocating simply ignoring the West, or changing the country’s foreign policy course, are now mounting within the Azerbaijani political leadership.
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